***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 14.2 15.1 11.8 3.3 78.2 75.1 7.4 11.4 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.8 13.5 11.6 3.1 77.0 73.1 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 13.2 14.9 12.3 3.3 78.4 74.1 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 7.1 10.1 9.9 3.8 81.9 77.6 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 13.4 16.2 10.8 3.6 81.4 76.5 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.0 16.0 9.2 3.6 82.9 76.7 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 11.8 13.6 11.4 3.0 77.4 73.2 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 3.1 4.9 9.8 3.7 83.4 77.7 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.8 15.5 11.4 3.6 80.1 75.9 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 14.4 15.8 10.5 3.7 81.9 76.8 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 14.1 16.7 10.7 3.6 82.1 76.6 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 12.9 14.9 10.3 3.5 83.3 77.0 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 13.7 16.6 9.6 3.4 83.9 76.5 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.8 11.5 3.4 76.5 73.9 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 13.7 15.9 10.5 3.8 83.9 77.5 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 14.2 17.1 10.1 3.5 82.5 76.4 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 11.0 12.3 11.3 2.8 74.2 72.2 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.7 15.1 10.4 3.7 82.0 76.6 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.9 13.8 11.9 3.1 77.4 73.2 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 8.2 9.5 7.9 3.6 83.7 77.9 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.7 15.6 11.9 3.5 79.9 75.1 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 11.7 13.1 11.5 2.9 74.8 72.1 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.6 14.1 12.2 3.2 77.4 73.1 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 13.9 15.7 11.5 3.5 78.9 74.7 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 13.2 15.4 10.5 3.6 80.8 76.5 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 12.9 14.8 9.4 3.5 83.7 78.0 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 12.7 14.5 11.2 3.3 79.2 75.2 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 15.0 18.1 10.2 3.8 82.4 77.0 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 9.2 10.9 9.6 3.7 81.8 77.1 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.3 14.0 11.7 3.2 78.6 73.8 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------