***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 11.2 15.4 11.2 3.7 84.9 79.1 4.8 7.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 9.6 13.3 11.3 3.9 84.2 79.4 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 11.2 15.5 11.9 3.9 84.8 79.1 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 5.0 8.2 9.0 4.2 86.0 80.8 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 11.3 14.1 10.2 3.9 83.1 79.1 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 9.9 12.1 8.3 3.4 82.3 77.6 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 9.3 12.6 10.9 3.6 83.9 78.2 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 1.4 3.3 9.1 3.8 82.7 79.6 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 11.5 15.9 11.2 4.0 84.0 79.8 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 11.3 14.9 10.0 3.9 82.5 78.9 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 11.4 14.1 10.5 3.8 81.3 78.5 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 11.1 13.0 9.7 3.6 81.6 78.9 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.2 13.2 9.4 3.2 78.3 75.6 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 12.2 15.9 11.5 4.1 82.4 78.8 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 10.8 14.8 10.5 4.3 86.4 81.6 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 11.9 13.6 9.6 3.5 80.4 77.4 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 8.9 12.8 10.8 3.7 84.9 79.0 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 10.3 15.5 9.7 3.9 82.7 78.9 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 10.1 14.6 11.6 4.0 84.3 79.6 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 7.4 10.1 7.5 3.7 85.2 80.1 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 11.3 15.7 11.7 3.9 84.8 79.3 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 9.6 15.0 11.3 3.9 85.8 79.7 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.6 14.5 11.9 4.0 83.8 79.3 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 11.1 13.7 11.3 4.0 82.5 78.6 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 10.3 14.9 10.1 3.8 85.6 79.5 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 10.6 12.8 8.5 3.4 83.4 78.6 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 10.7 13.0 10.5 3.5 83.6 78.4 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 12.1 15.5 9.7 4.2 85.0 80.3 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 7.7 10.6 9.0 3.8 83.4 79.1 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 9.8 13.2 11.3 3.8 84.1 79.2 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------