***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.1 65.8 63.6 -1.5 -0.3 0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 1.2 65.8 64.6 -2.2 -1.0 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 2.3 2.3 0.4 1.2 68.1 65.8 -0.1 1.0 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 -3.6 -3.0 -1.9 1.4 69.4 67.4 -6.4 -5.0 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 1.6 75.9 71.8 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 -1.4 -1.3 -3.2 2.0 76.5 75.7 -2.7 -2.2 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 1.1 62.3 62.6 -1.8 -0.8 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 -5.6 -5.2 -2.8 2.2 80.9 78.2 -9.6 -7.5 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 0.5 0.8 -1.0 1.7 75.7 72.8 -1.7 -0.8 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 0.6 0.8 -2.3 1.9 78.6 75.9 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 0.0 0.2 -1.8 1.8 76.7 73.8 -1.5 -0.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.2 2.1 77.9 76.1 -2.6 -2.0 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 -0.3 -0.1 -2.4 1.9 77.3 75.3 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 1.0 0.9 -1.0 1.8 75.6 74.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 -0.5 0.2 -1.0 1.2 65.5 64.9 -1.4 -0.8 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 0.4 0.7 -2.2 1.8 76.9 73.9 -1.0 -0.4 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 -0.6 0.1 0.4 1.3 66.2 65.3 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 -2.0 -1.6 -2.5 2.3 81.6 79.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 67.5 66.1 -2.1 -1.1 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -3.9 -3.6 -3.6 2.7 84.7 83.2 -7.0 -5.6 -4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 0.1 0.1 -0.1 1.4 71.6 68.9 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 -0.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 68.0 67.1 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 1.3 69.6 67.7 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -0.2 0.0 -1.1 1.8 76.7 74.6 -1.9 -1.0 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 1.5 71.0 68.8 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 0.0 0.1 -2.4 2.2 78.4 77.5 -1.8 -1.2 -0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 0.4 0.3 -0.1 1.3 68.0 65.5 -2.2 -0.5 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.7 1.4 68.7 67.5 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 -2.0 -0.8 -2.9 2.6 83.3 82.3 -5.4 -4.3 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 -0.4 0.5 0.3 1.2 65.5 64.0 -1.8 -0.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------