***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 48.3 111.8 65.6 57.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.2 34.6 45.7 108.9 60.3 55.7 20.3 29.5 36.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 39.2 45.6 49.4 113.7 66.4 58.6 27.3 33.2 45.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 41.3 57.0 54.3 109.9 61.5 57.8 27.8 34.2 59.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 41.8 42.0 55.7 110.3 63.8 58.4 28.7 36.3 44.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 34.5 33.9 54.0 102.0 56.5 52.1 21.4 30.2 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 17.4 27.9 45.1 107.2 60.2 54.9 20.8 25.2 31.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 64.1 61.6 57.7 105.7 58.7 55.3 53.1 58.0 70.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 35.1 40.1 54.3 107.5 63.6 56.6 22.9 32.6 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 42.5 44.3 57.6 106.0 59.2 55.5 29.3 39.7 50.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 36.4 40.0 52.2 107.7 61.2 57.0 23.3 33.5 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 35.9 39.5 51.1 106.0 60.9 56.3 25.3 33.2 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 40.2 48.0 54.0 105.1 62.4 55.3 28.3 37.3 48.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 39.7 61.1 57.8 108.5 60.4 54.5 37.2 52.2 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 38.1 43.0 49.6 110.9 60.6 58.0 15.1 31.0 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 34.9 37.0 52.6 106.3 62.8 56.2 22.9 32.3 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 31.7 28.6 42.4 103.3 57.6 52.5 20.0 26.8 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 39.6 42.7 64.1 107.2 58.0 56.3 28.8 35.5 44.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.1 36.8 47.0 110.5 62.3 56.6 25.0 34.8 40.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 42.1 40.8 76.4 107.4 60.5 56.0 26.0 37.5 41.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 39.8 43.5 51.9 111.2 64.8 58.2 25.8 36.1 44.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 31.2 30.0 44.0 102.5 54.0 51.4 22.9 29.0 33.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.2 37.8 49.8 111.6 66.0 57.0 22.8 32.8 37.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 46.3 49.6 57.2 109.2 60.5 56.6 32.5 41.0 55.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 39.4 50.4 58.4 115.1 65.1 60.3 22.2 32.7 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 34.0 35.8 54.5 103.6 58.1 54.6 27.8 31.8 41.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 33.0 37.8 53.7 111.4 63.4 57.5 19.8 27.0 41.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 38.5 40.7 50.9 108.1 60.6 56.8 19.5 33.4 44.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 62.7 63.7 68.7 106.8 59.9 55.3 48.1 54.9 74.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 38.8 37.0 46.9 111.4 62.7 56.9 19.6 32.1 38.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------