***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 113.1 64.5 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.0 4.5 10.9 110.4 61.7 51.1 0.7 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.3 11.1 111.9 64.8 51.1 0.9 5.4 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.7 11.1 107.3 57.4 49.4 2.7 6.1 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 11.5 105.5 56.6 48.7 0.7 3.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.2 11.3 89.9 54.1 43.9 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.2 3.9 10.7 109.5 62.9 50.5 0.3 1.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.8 10.9 11.7 95.4 49.1 46.3 5.8 11.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.7 11.8 106.8 57.0 49.1 0.0 1.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.8 12.0 99.9 52.3 47.0 0.4 2.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.1 10.7 100.7 51.5 47.4 0.8 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.7 2.8 10.4 96.5 50.4 47.0 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.6 11.2 93.7 54.2 45.4 2.6 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 1.7 7.5 13.0 104.1 59.2 47.8 0.9 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.9 9.6 108.7 59.6 50.6 1.5 3.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.3 10.8 96.8 53.0 46.0 2.1 4.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.5 2.5 10.2 105.7 62.9 50.7 0.4 1.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.1 2.8 13.4 97.8 51.8 45.3 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.1 11.1 110.0 62.7 51.0 0.8 3.0 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 1.2 2.8 15.8 95.5 48.7 45.9 1.1 3.0 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.0 11.4 109.9 61.4 50.7 0.2 2.0 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.6 2.5 10.5 102.5 62.0 50.8 0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.5 11.6 108.8 64.1 49.9 0.3 2.2 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 1.1 5.3 12.3 102.6 58.6 46.5 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.7 12.5 112.0 60.9 50.1 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.0 1.9 11.4 92.1 49.7 46.1 0.6 1.9 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.6 12.0 110.5 62.2 49.7 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.5 10.0 103.5 56.6 48.4 1.6 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.6 14.3 96.5 50.3 45.3 2.5 5.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.2 11.0 113.0 62.6 51.4 0.5 2.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------