***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 114.1 62.0 56.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 10.8 8.5 13.5 120.9 70.6 58.2 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.8 13.5 121.7 70.5 58.3 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.5 14.0 111.1 64.7 57.6 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 11.3 14.2 112.1 66.0 57.9 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.1 13.3 13.7 106.7 64.1 55.5 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.4 9.1 13.1 115.4 69.6 56.8 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.3 22.1 15.4 109.7 68.8 59.0 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.6 14.3 112.5 65.3 57.3 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.7 15.2 111.5 68.1 58.1 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.6 13.6 110.5 69.6 59.1 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.9 13.4 107.7 67.7 58.4 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.3 13.9 13.7 106.9 63.8 56.5 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.2 16.2 124.2 69.1 58.6 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.2 5.6 13.2 111.9 67.3 57.3 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.8 13.5 107.9 65.5 57.9 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.9 12.7 115.1 65.9 56.8 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 16.5 17.4 116.6 69.2 58.3 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 11.1 13.8 123.9 70.5 59.0 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.8 20.9 21.9 116.5 70.8 59.9 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.7 13.6 117.5 65.7 58.0 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.7 10.1 13.2 116.9 65.5 57.5 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 9.5 14.4 126.1 70.8 59.6 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 13.8 15.5 119.9 68.7 57.9 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.8 14.8 114.0 60.5 56.4 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.9 12.6 14.9 110.9 67.1 60.8 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.8 13.8 110.3 60.1 55.0 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.2 13.1 108.9 65.1 57.5 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 22.9 19.2 118.2 68.7 58.9 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.8 10.8 13.5 121.2 72.3 58.2 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------