***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 124.2 65.8 64.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.8 11.5 9.6 110.4 69.2 60.3 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 6.3 14.6 12.7 123.8 68.4 63.3 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 12.0 17.4 16.0 134.4 74.7 66.3 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 13.3 16.2 16.8 140.2 74.4 69.1 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 10.2 10.5 16.1 139.2 71.3 66.8 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 4.0 8.3 9.8 113.6 71.0 63.4 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 49 51 100 22.3 23.6 16.4 128.5 69.3 65.8 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 8.3 11.9 15.3 127.0 68.3 66.1 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 12.6 20.1 16.4 125.9 68.7 65.4 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 12.3 16.4 15.7 137.4 71.8 68.1 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 13.9 15.1 15.2 134.7 69.8 67.0 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 15.4 16.8 16.6 142.6 71.4 68.3 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 10.0 15.2 14.2 114.4 61.2 58.6 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 8.0 14.2 14.4 132.9 72.9 64.7 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 49 51 100 12.0 14.3 16.2 143.1 72.6 68.3 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.7 8.5 8.4 103.2 68.3 60.2 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 10.4 13.1 17.3 122.8 66.4 64.3 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.7 13.2 10.2 111.9 68.1 59.6 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 8.8 15.2 18.3 117.0 65.9 61.9 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.0 14.9 14.8 130.0 70.0 65.8 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.2 10.9 8.7 101.0 65.0 57.8 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 5.8 11.4 11.5 115.0 66.7 59.4 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 8.5 10.4 15.3 121.2 66.3 63.0 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 14.8 19.0 17.3 144.2 77.5 70.9 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 9.1 12.3 15.4 127.1 68.8 65.2 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 12.5 10.5 14.7 131.7 71.1 67.4 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 6.7 12.8 15.3 136.8 73.0 65.9 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 18.2 20.7 17.3 115.7 63.6 61.5 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.2 8.7 10.6 115.3 69.3 61.4 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------