***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 -4.3 9.2 11.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 99 1 0 100 3.5 2.3 2.9 -4.7 7.0 10.1 5.7 7.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 4.3 3.3 3.8 -4.3 9.9 12.1 6.3 7.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 1.8 -4.3 11.8 12.6 -0.5 0.5 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 4.0 3.5 2.6 -4.1 11.6 13.4 6.9 7.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 4.3 3.7 1.1 -3.8 11.4 13.3 5.8 6.9 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 3.0 2.1 2.9 -4.6 7.1 10.4 5.3 6.9 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 -3.3 -4.0 1.8 -3.6 13.0 14.7 -2.5 -0.6 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 4.6 4.2 3.5 -3.8 14.4 15.2 6.7 8.2 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 4.5 4.1 2.5 -3.6 13.6 15.3 6.9 8.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 4.6 4.2 2.6 -4.0 11.8 13.3 7.2 8.0 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 4.7 4.1 2.3 -3.9 12.4 13.4 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 5.5 4.6 1.9 -4.0 11.4 12.1 6.9 8.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 4.7 4.0 3.6 -3.7 14.5 15.4 6.3 8.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.1 -4.4 11.8 12.5 5.2 6.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 5.6 4.7 2.1 -4.1 10.3 12.3 7.3 8.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 3.2 2.4 3.0 -4.1 10.7 13.0 5.3 6.6 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 4.2 3.8 2.1 -3.4 13.6 16.1 6.4 7.4 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 3.3 2.1 3.2 -4.7 8.8 10.7 5.7 7.1 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.9 0.2 -3.1 13.5 15.7 2.2 3.5 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 4.3 3.9 3.9 -3.9 12.8 14.3 6.7 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 3.5 2.9 3.4 -4.0 11.7 13.5 6.0 7.2 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 3.8 3.0 3.7 -4.4 11.6 12.3 6.1 7.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 4.7 4.0 3.4 -3.7 12.8 15.2 6.7 8.2 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 3.4 3.1 2.5 -3.9 12.5 13.2 6.0 7.1 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 5.3 5.0 1.8 -3.8 11.4 12.4 6.6 8.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 4.5 3.6 2.9 -4.1 10.5 11.9 6.1 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 3.2 2.6 2.0 -4.5 11.2 12.2 5.6 7.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.3 -3.2 14.2 16.3 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 3.7 2.1 3.0 -4.8 6.9 9.7 5.6 7.1 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------