***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.3 -1.1 38.3 42.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.0 8.4 8.0 -1.2 36.3 40.7 7.4 10.7 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 7.8 9.6 8.5 -1.1 39.4 42.2 8.1 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 5.9 -1.9 31.9 36.5 -0.4 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 6.8 9.0 6.6 -1.5 35.4 39.5 7.7 11.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.7 8.2 4.5 -1.7 33.8 38.2 7.6 10.0 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.4 7.9 -1.1 37.0 42.0 7.6 10.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -3.0 -0.5 5.5 -1.2 37.8 41.4 -1.2 0.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 6.8 10.1 7.6 -1.0 40.5 43.4 8.5 11.2 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.5 9.8 6.4 -1.0 39.8 42.9 8.1 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 7.0 9.4 6.5 -1.4 36.0 39.9 8.0 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.3 9.4 6.2 -1.3 37.5 40.3 8.8 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 7.4 10.5 5.5 -1.5 36.4 39.3 10.4 11.5 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.9 7.6 -1.0 42.2 43.6 7.3 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 6.5 5.3 6.0 -1.9 30.3 36.2 5.5 10.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 7.0 9.6 5.9 -1.7 33.9 38.1 9.1 11.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 6.7 8.8 7.9 -0.9 38.9 43.4 6.4 10.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 9.1 5.9 -0.9 41.8 44.5 7.4 11.0 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 7.1 8.4 8.2 -1.3 37.1 40.5 6.6 11.2 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.7 3.4 -0.9 39.9 43.7 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.8 8.2 -1.0 40.3 43.4 8.7 11.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.4 8.2 -0.9 39.2 42.9 6.3 11.2 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.7 8.3 -1.2 39.5 41.3 7.5 11.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.7 10.2 7.5 -0.9 41.2 44.0 9.4 11.6 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.7 8.1 6.8 -1.2 37.5 41.7 7.1 10.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 7.0 10.4 5.6 -1.3 36.7 41.1 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.7 7.5 -1.0 38.5 42.5 8.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 6.7 5.6 5.9 -2.1 30.2 35.3 6.2 11.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.9 4.9 -0.8 42.3 44.5 3.6 6.0 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 7.1 8.6 8.1 -1.3 36.7 40.5 7.4 10.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------