***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.4 -3.7 20.8 25.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 4.6 4.3 4.9 -4.0 21.8 23.5 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 6.3 5.6 5.6 -3.7 21.1 25.1 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 3.6 -3.8 20.6 23.5 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 5.7 6.6 4.2 -3.6 22.4 25.3 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 6.2 6.5 2.9 -3.1 22.3 27.9 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 4.2 4.4 4.9 -3.8 21.9 24.3 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 3.4 -3.0 22.6 27.8 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 7.1 6.8 5.0 -3.4 22.8 27.4 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 6.9 6.6 4.1 -3.1 23.3 28.2 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 7.1 6.5 4.1 -3.5 21.5 25.6 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 6.9 6.7 4.0 -3.3 21.0 26.2 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 8.1 7.4 3.5 -3.2 21.5 26.4 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 6.1 6.1 5.2 -3.2 24.8 28.0 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 3.1 2.7 3.6 -3.9 20.1 22.6 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 8.0 7.4 3.7 -3.5 20.8 25.2 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 4.0 4.1 5.0 -3.4 23.8 26.1 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 7.4 6.2 3.9 -2.8 25.2 30.2 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 4.3 4.0 5.1 -4.0 21.4 23.6 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.2 1.9 -2.3 25.3 32.0 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 6.4 6.6 5.5 -3.4 23.4 27.1 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 4.5 4.4 5.3 -3.4 24.1 26.2 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 5.0 5.0 5.4 -3.8 21.6 24.5 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 6.7 6.9 5.1 -3.2 24.0 28.2 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 4.7 5.0 4.2 -3.4 22.6 26.4 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 7.3 6.9 3.6 -3.0 23.2 27.3 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.8 -3.5 21.9 25.9 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 3.2 2.7 3.6 -4.0 19.7 22.7 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.0 2.3 3.1 -2.5 26.0 31.3 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 5.3 4.3 5.0 -4.0 21.0 23.2 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------