***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 -4.1 13.5 18.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 1.9 1.3 2.7 -4.5 14.3 16.3 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 3.1 2.7 3.7 -4.1 15.4 18.8 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -3.4 -4.0 2.3 -3.7 17.9 22.1 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 3.6 3.3 3.0 -3.5 19.4 23.4 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.3 1.9 -3.0 22.7 25.6 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 90 10 0 100 2.1 1.4 2.7 -4.3 14.1 16.7 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -4.3 -4.6 2.3 -3.0 21.8 25.3 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 4.0 3.8 3.6 -3.4 19.9 24.0 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.6 4.5 2.9 -3.1 21.7 25.5 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 4.4 4.2 3.0 -3.4 20.4 23.5 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 4.1 4.0 2.8 -3.4 20.6 23.1 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 4.6 4.0 2.4 -3.4 20.4 22.9 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 4.1 3.4 3.7 -3.4 20.2 23.9 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 3.4 2.9 2.2 -3.9 17.5 21.2 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 4.7 4.4 2.6 -3.5 20.1 23.0 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 2.1 1.5 2.7 -4.0 15.3 19.0 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.3 4.5 2.6 -2.8 23.2 27.4 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 1.8 1.2 3.1 -4.5 14.2 16.6 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 0.6 -0.2 0.8 -2.3 24.6 29.0 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 3.6 3.3 3.8 -3.7 17.6 22.1 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 2.3 1.2 3.1 -4.0 14.2 19.3 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 2.0 1.4 3.6 -4.2 15.0 18.3 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 4.2 3.9 3.6 -3.3 21.3 23.9 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 2.8 2.4 2.6 -3.5 17.6 22.1 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 3.6 3.7 2.1 -3.4 18.8 21.1 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 3.0 2.5 2.9 -3.8 15.3 19.9 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 3.7 3.6 2.4 -3.8 18.0 21.8 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 1.2 0.4 1.9 -2.5 24.7 28.7 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.0 3.0 -4.5 13.6 16.1 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------