***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -4.4 -4.0 4.7 9.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 99 1 0 100 -4.6 -5.4 -4.7 -3.9 6.5 11.2 -2.2 -1.0 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -2.1 -3.2 -4.6 -4.0 4.5 9.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -8.3 -8.6 -5.9 -3.4 13.9 14.2 -6.4 -5.0 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -5.6 -3.4 14.1 13.7 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 -4.3 -4.5 -6.9 -2.7 11.2 16.6 -2.7 -2.2 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 -4.1 -5.0 -4.7 -4.0 7.0 11.5 -1.8 -0.8 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 -10.5 -11.1 -6.6 -3.0 12.6 15.7 -9.6 -7.5 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 -3.5 12.2 12.6 -1.7 -0.8 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 -2.7 -3.2 -6.2 -3.1 13.5 15.7 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 -2.9 -3.6 -5.9 -3.3 10.3 12.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 -4.4 -5.3 -6.2 -3.5 8.5 11.8 -2.6 -2.0 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 -3.3 -4.3 -6.3 -3.3 8.5 12.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 -3.3 -3.7 -5.4 -3.6 7.8 12.3 -1.4 -0.5 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -3.7 -4.3 -5.7 -3.7 11.6 12.3 -1.4 -0.8 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 -2.5 -3.2 -6.2 -3.4 9.2 12.4 -1.0 -0.4 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 -4.3 -4.9 -4.6 -3.7 12.5 13.9 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 -5.0 -5.2 -6.5 -2.8 17.1 19.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -4.3 -5.5 -4.6 -3.9 5.5 10.3 -2.1 -1.1 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -8.4 -8.4 -7.4 -2.0 21.2 25.1 -7.0 -5.6 -4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 -3.1 -4.7 -4.7 -3.8 7.6 10.7 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 -4.4 -5.5 -4.5 -3.7 8.9 13.0 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -5.0 -4.7 -3.9 5.3 9.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 -3.4 -4.4 -5.5 -3.4 10.2 13.5 -1.9 -1.0 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -3.3 -3.8 -5.3 -3.5 11.5 12.6 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 -3.4 -4.1 -6.1 -3.1 9.4 13.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -3.0 -5.1 -4.9 -3.8 8.3 11.1 -2.2 -0.5 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -4.3 -4.9 -5.8 -3.6 12.6 13.2 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 -6.1 -6.1 -6.8 -2.4 19.6 22.3 -5.4 -4.3 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -4.2 -5.1 -4.6 -4.0 4.6 9.9 -1.8 -0.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------