***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.1 -1.8 26.6 35.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.7 27.3 35.5 -0.9 0.3 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 0.1 1.0 -1.4 -1.9 27.6 33.7 1.5 2.1 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -6.5 -6.8 -3.3 -1.9 23.2 31.5 -4.6 -4.0 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.0 -1.7 25.3 33.8 -1.5 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -2.4 -4.6 -1.4 32.5 36.1 -2.4 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -1.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6 29.5 37.5 -0.5 0.4 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -9.1 -8.4 -4.0 -1.4 32.5 37.8 -8.4 -6.6 -4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -1.5 -0.6 -2.5 -1.6 30.1 35.8 -0.4 0.8 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -0.4 -3.5 -1.4 33.5 37.6 -0.4 0.5 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -2.1 -1.1 -3.4 -1.8 26.1 33.6 -0.4 0.5 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -3.5 -1.8 27.7 34.6 -2.3 -0.3 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 -3.8 -1.6 31.4 35.6 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -0.7 0.1 -2.5 -1.7 32.0 35.5 0.2 1.0 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -1.1 -1.8 -3.2 -2.2 20.5 29.6 -1.0 1.1 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -0.5 -1.0 -3.7 -1.8 26.8 32.8 -0.5 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 31.4 40.4 -0.7 0.6 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -2.0 -3.9 -1.1 37.9 40.2 -2.1 -1.2 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.9 25.7 33.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -3.6 -5.1 -4.9 -0.5 42.6 46.7 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -0.9 -1.7 -1.7 28.5 35.6 -0.6 1.1 1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0 -1.4 30.2 38.4 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 24.2 32.5 -0.6 0.4 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -1.1 -0.7 -2.7 -1.6 32.8 35.8 -0.6 0.4 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -0.9 -0.5 -2.4 -1.6 29.8 35.4 -0.4 0.8 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 0.5 -1.0 -3.2 -1.2 35.6 39.3 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -1.2 -1.7 -1.7 29.6 36.4 -0.6 0.8 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -2.5 -3.2 -3.4 -2.1 22.6 29.4 -2.0 -0.4 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -3.0 -4.4 -0.9 39.9 42.2 -4.3 -2.1 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 26.8 34.3 0.0 0.5 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------