***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.9 -3.4 16.4 24.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -3.5 -3.4 -3.6 14.8 23.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 -0.5 -1.5 -3.2 -3.5 15.8 22.9 0.5 1.9 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -7.3 -6.7 -4.3 -2.6 20.7 26.6 -5.1 -3.7 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -3.0 -2.8 -4.2 -2.7 20.0 26.9 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -2.9 -5.1 -1.6 27.8 33.2 -2.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -2.4 -3.8 -3.3 -3.6 14.8 24.7 -1.3 0.0 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -8.0 -7.8 -4.9 -2.1 25.1 31.4 -7.6 -5.9 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 -1.6 -1.9 -4.0 -3.0 19.3 26.1 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 -2.1 -1.4 -4.6 -2.4 23.8 30.1 -0.8 0.2 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -2.3 -4.3 -2.5 21.3 27.2 -1.2 0.0 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 -3.2 -3.7 -4.5 -2.5 21.4 27.6 -1.9 -1.1 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 -2.6 -2.3 -4.6 -2.2 25.4 29.4 -1.4 0.2 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 -4.1 -3.1 19.5 25.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 -2.8 -3.5 -4.3 -3.0 19.7 24.1 -1.1 0.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 -1.7 -1.4 -4.5 -2.4 23.1 28.2 -0.9 0.4 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 -2.4 -4.5 -3.2 -3.3 14.6 26.5 -1.3 0.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -3.4 -4.0 -4.9 -2.1 28.3 33.1 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 -2.1 -3.2 -3.4 -3.6 15.5 22.3 -1.1 0.2 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -8.1 -5.9 -5.5 -1.1 35.8 41.2 -6.6 -4.3 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 -3.3 -3.2 18.0 25.3 -0.9 -0.3 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 -2.6 -3.7 -3.2 -3.3 16.4 25.0 -1.4 -0.1 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.6 -3.6 16.9 21.6 -1.7 -0.4 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -2.9 -2.4 -4.2 -2.9 21.1 26.6 -1.2 -0.1 1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 -2.3 -3.0 -3.8 -2.9 18.0 26.8 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 -2.4 -2.3 -4.2 -2.0 26.3 31.2 -1.5 -0.3 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 -2.1 -3.0 -3.4 -3.2 16.5 26.0 -1.3 -0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 -3.5 -3.7 -4.3 -2.8 21.6 25.8 -3.0 -0.8 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -4.5 -3.7 -5.1 -1.6 33.4 37.3 -3.7 -1.7 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.6 15.6 22.9 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------