***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -9.9 -7.9 0.0 0.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 -6.2 -16.2 -10.1 -7.7 1.2 4.4 -4.6 -2.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -4.1 -11.1 -9.7 -7.6 0.6 1.8 -2.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -10.9 -14.9 -10.9 -6.8 2.7 3.5 -9.2 -5.9 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -7.1 -14.9 -10.5 -6.9 1.4 2.4 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 -7.8 -10.0 -11.9 -6.1 4.4 6.2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 -5.4 -13.5 -10.5 -8.0 3.1 4.1 -4.6 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -14.0 -15.7 -12.3 -7.0 3.0 4.6 -12.3 -8.5 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -6.2 -16.6 -10.2 -7.1 0.0 1.6 -3.9 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 -6.0 -11.4 -11.6 -6.9 1.9 3.9 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -6.4 -11.9 -11.0 -7.0 2.0 2.6 -3.6 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 -7.1 -13.5 -11.9 -7.4 1.9 2.7 -5.6 -3.1 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -5.9 -20.2 -11.5 -7.2 0.1 2.1 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -5.6 -10.4 -10.4 -7.1 2.4 3.4 -3.5 -2.2 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -5.5 -10.1 -9.8 -7.1 2.7 3.7 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 -5.3 -13.8 -11.3 -7.1 0.3 1.6 -3.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 -5.5 -10.0 -10.3 -7.7 6.4 6.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -8.1 -9.5 -12.0 -6.6 5.9 5.9 -5.3 -4.1 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -5.8 -15.9 -9.8 -7.4 1.1 3.8 -4.5 -3.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -11.7 -12.8 -13.2 -6.0 3.8 6.7 -10.2 -7.7 -5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -6.2 -17.6 -9.9 -7.6 0.1 1.2 -4.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -5.8 -11.5 -9.8 -7.2 6.5 6.5 -4.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -5.8 -14.0 -9.6 -7.2 1.4 2.7 -4.1 -3.6 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -6.5 -9.2 -10.5 -6.9 4.2 4.3 -3.9 -3.5 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -6.3 -15.4 -10.2 -7.1 0.9 2.1 -3.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -6.1 -15.6 -12.0 -7.3 0.0 2.0 -4.2 -2.7 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -6.2 -18.7 -10.2 -7.6 0.0 1.3 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -6.7 -13.9 -10.5 -7.1 1.5 2.3 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -9.7 -12.6 -12.4 -6.3 4.8 5.6 -8.7 -5.3 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -6.1 -16.2 -10.0 -7.8 0.0 2.4 -4.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------