***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 35.0 44.2 45.5 109.1 63.5 56.4 21.8 29.1 45.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 34.9 34.2 39.0 109.4 62.5 56.9 18.3 29.9 36.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 39.6 43.0 44.4 109.0 64.0 56.2 27.6 33.4 43.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 42.9 60.9 57.1 120.5 67.6 60.5 28.0 34.9 59.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 43.5 42.5 52.7 111.4 64.0 57.7 29.9 37.3 44.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 37.1 36.7 52.3 107.1 60.4 54.9 22.3 31.5 44.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 30.0 28.2 39.0 111.8 62.9 57.2 19.3 26.0 31.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 66.9 69.1 54.7 105.6 61.9 54.6 53.9 57.8 70.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 35.5 40.5 52.9 110.8 64.3 57.6 25.2 32.0 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 43.1 45.9 55.3 106.4 60.6 55.2 31.5 39.6 50.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 36.8 40.7 50.5 107.9 62.3 55.6 23.3 33.2 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 36.5 39.6 49.4 106.7 61.8 54.7 27.5 33.7 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 43.1 48.0 52.1 103.1 57.9 52.7 27.8 38.7 52.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 58.0 61.3 55.1 103.6 59.8 53.2 37.1 54.8 65.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 38.3 53.7 58.1 132.6 70.6 62.0 15.9 31.8 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 36.1 39.4 51.0 108.7 61.9 55.8 23.7 33.3 42.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 30.4 32.4 38.4 113.6 63.4 59.3 20.0 26.6 34.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 42.0 42.4 57.2 103.7 59.8 54.0 30.1 37.7 44.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 38.6 38.0 40.2 108.3 62.9 56.5 23.9 34.8 38.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 44.1 41.2 67.0 99.0 58.9 51.6 29.5 39.9 43.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 40.4 44.4 48.8 109.0 63.1 56.3 24.9 36.0 45.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 31.6 33.8 40.9 113.7 64.4 59.8 22.9 29.6 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 31.1 35.8 43.1 106.7 63.7 55.4 23.7 28.7 36.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 46.9 50.6 52.6 106.4 62.5 55.1 33.5 41.0 55.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.8 45.0 50.6 104.8 60.8 53.4 22.0 32.4 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.7 37.6 50.8 104.2 61.5 53.5 30.2 35.0 40.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 30.7 35.0 47.4 107.0 61.5 54.7 19.8 23.4 47.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 38.5 48.1 55.7 125.1 68.3 61.0 20.2 33.4 46.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 64.3 61.0 59.8 100.4 58.2 52.3 48.6 55.8 74.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 35.9 36.3 40.7 109.7 63.6 56.7 19.6 30.0 38.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------