***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.3 12.6 110.4 64.7 53.7 1.1 5.7 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.2 5.0 10.7 109.5 62.8 53.4 0.7 1.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.5 12.2 108.8 63.9 53.8 1.0 5.9 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 13.0 14.7 16.8 134.2 73.9 60.1 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.1 15.9 122.4 70.6 58.9 1.3 4.8 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.3 11.7 16.0 117.4 66.2 57.4 0.3 2.8 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.2 10.8 112.4 63.2 53.7 0.4 2.1 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.2 20.9 15.8 108.6 65.5 55.9 6.7 13.8 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 9.8 10.7 16.0 117.2 68.7 58.4 0.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.2 9.0 16.4 110.9 65.4 56.8 0.6 4.5 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.8 15.0 118.7 68.1 58.2 0.7 4.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.1 9.4 14.6 114.7 67.0 56.9 0.0 4.3 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.2 10.3 16.0 118.2 66.1 57.8 0.9 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.0 12.0 15.6 104.6 63.7 54.2 0.8 4.6 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 10.3 14.1 17.1 146.7 76.7 60.5 1.1 3.4 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.4 9.9 15.7 124.5 70.1 59.2 1.4 5.3 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.2 4.4 10.9 116.5 66.1 56.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.1 16.6 105.4 62.4 55.7 0.9 4.5 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.0 10.9 106.4 62.1 52.9 0.8 2.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.8 7.2 19.8 103.1 62.1 55.3 0.5 3.0 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.1 5.9 13.8 111.2 64.7 55.7 1.0 2.2 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.9 11.4 112.4 64.6 55.9 0.6 2.0 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.2 7.0 11.7 104.3 63.0 53.0 0.3 2.3 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.4 9.0 15.0 108.4 62.9 55.6 1.2 4.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.8 7.4 14.9 115.3 66.4 56.1 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.8 6.1 14.9 111.0 63.6 54.9 0.4 2.2 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.3 13.6 113.2 64.7 54.6 1.1 4.4 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 9.0 10.2 16.9 143.1 75.4 61.2 1.5 3.5 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 15.0 17.1 101.4 61.0 55.3 2.0 6.4 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.0 5.5 11.2 109.9 63.3 52.9 0.5 1.7 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------