***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 14.0 12.7 111.7 66.0 52.6 1.1 5.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.6 10.5 105.3 63.8 51.7 4.3 9.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.4 14.0 12.5 110.4 63.8 52.8 3.8 6.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.6 18.9 15.9 130.6 72.2 54.9 2.8 12.4 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.5 15.8 127.3 70.1 55.6 5.1 8.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 11.0 14.7 114.5 66.1 55.5 4.0 5.9 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.5 13.6 10.2 106.2 63.0 52.1 1.4 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.5 17.6 15.7 119.6 64.9 54.5 8.8 14.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 14.6 16.2 123.4 68.3 55.3 2.7 5.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.1 16.3 119.2 65.0 54.6 5.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.6 11.4 14.5 121.9 67.4 54.4 2.2 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.1 12.6 13.7 116.7 63.6 54.6 3.1 5.5 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.2 12.1 14.9 114.4 64.0 55.4 3.2 7.5 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 13.7 15.3 102.5 62.0 52.0 6.3 11.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 24.5 16.0 137.4 73.6 54.9 0.8 8.4 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 13.7 14.3 118.9 66.4 55.4 1.9 8.4 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.3 10.3 110.9 66.2 53.5 5.5 7.8 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.9 16.5 112.4 61.7 53.8 5.4 8.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.9 11.0 105.9 64.4 51.7 4.0 6.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.5 19.8 114.1 62.1 53.0 4.0 7.6 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.9 15.2 14.7 120.2 68.8 54.4 2.8 5.6 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.0 11.6 117.7 67.5 54.3 5.6 10.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.4 11.9 104.4 63.3 51.5 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.2 15.0 110.4 63.1 53.7 5.9 8.6 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.6 17.8 15.3 119.6 68.6 53.3 1.4 3.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.6 14.3 113.9 63.6 54.6 2.7 8.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 13.2 13.9 115.0 66.8 52.8 1.4 6.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.7 16.9 15.3 130.9 72.1 55.4 1.9 8.1 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 16.2 17.0 107.9 60.4 52.9 7.6 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.0 12.1 10.9 104.4 62.2 51.5 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------