***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.0 8.8 87.5 58.1 46.4 3.4 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 6.3 74.3 54.7 45.4 1.0 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.9 8.7 89.1 58.3 46.6 2.9 6.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.9 11.4 95.8 61.7 51.3 3.4 5.9 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.4 6.3 10.6 95.0 59.8 50.6 3.8 6.1 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.6 11.0 91.7 58.3 50.2 2.0 8.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.2 6.1 6.7 80.4 55.8 45.6 1.9 3.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.9 11.8 94.8 58.5 49.6 8.6 12.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.3 10.7 94.1 58.2 48.7 2.7 4.9 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.8 11.6 96.8 58.2 49.7 3.6 4.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.9 9.6 10.8 92.3 57.3 48.1 2.4 3.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.4 10.7 91.9 58.5 48.7 2.1 5.2 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.1 10.5 85.1 55.2 46.5 3.1 7.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.1 10.7 86.1 54.6 46.1 2.2 6.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.3 12.1 107.8 68.8 53.7 0.6 2.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 10.5 90.5 57.9 49.0 3.0 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.0 5.8 70.8 53.1 45.4 1.1 3.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.4 12.3 97.0 58.5 49.9 2.9 5.5 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.3 6.7 75.3 53.9 45.3 1.4 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.4 14.1 87.6 54.7 47.2 4.3 9.7 15.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.5 9.7 89.6 56.6 47.4 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.4 5.9 67.9 51.0 44.6 0.9 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.5 7.8 81.0 54.1 46.2 2.2 3.5 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.6 11.0 94.0 58.3 48.6 3.6 5.4 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.4 9.1 77.9 53.0 43.5 2.5 5.9 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.7 11.7 96.7 60.3 51.5 3.3 8.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.4 8.8 81.2 55.3 44.2 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.9 11.5 102.1 64.8 53.0 1.4 3.1 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 14.8 13.2 93.9 56.4 48.9 6.4 13.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.3 7.3 82.8 57.9 46.7 1.3 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------