***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 15.1 13.6 11.3 129.0 68.6 66.2 2.0 4.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.5 13.3 11.5 155.3 73.3 70.5 1.0 4.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 14.2 13.6 11.1 130.8 68.2 65.9 1.7 5.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 12.0 16.4 13.0 120.6 66.1 63.0 6.1 10.9 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 11.7 14.1 10.4 96.9 56.2 54.6 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 8.2 8.0 10.5 102.5 58.5 56.1 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.4 11.4 153.3 73.0 69.8 0.9 3.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 19.6 20.7 11.5 98.5 58.3 55.8 12.6 18.5 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 9.6 10.1 10.1 104.5 60.9 57.8 4.2 8.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 12.6 14.9 11.0 95.7 56.4 53.5 6.6 11.5 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 10.1 10.4 10.3 96.7 57.1 54.4 4.0 9.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 12.1 13.5 10.4 102.4 60.3 57.3 6.5 10.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.5 10.7 91.9 53.5 51.6 4.3 10.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 47 53 100 17.5 17.0 13.4 123.9 68.1 63.4 4.0 11.4 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 12.3 13.3 12.8 139.0 70.9 68.2 1.6 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.3 10.5 98.6 58.6 55.1 3.8 8.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 11.0 13.4 11.4 163.6 76.9 71.1 1.3 4.0 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 11.9 13.1 11.8 98.2 59.1 54.6 4.3 10.3 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 19.2 11.6 152.7 73.5 70.5 1.8 6.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 8.1 10.0 13.3 89.2 55.4 53.1 5.1 6.6 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 9.6 14.3 10.5 113.9 64.2 61.5 3.3 8.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.7 17.1 12.0 164.6 77.7 72.7 1.8 5.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.5 15.2 11.6 144.0 71.8 69.1 2.4 5.5 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 10.9 12.8 11.6 112.4 64.9 59.8 5.3 9.5 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 8.6 10.9 11.2 103.8 61.0 59.0 1.7 6.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 9.2 9.5 9.9 93.1 56.6 54.5 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 8.0 8.3 11.2 118.7 65.0 63.4 1.8 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 9.2 12.9 12.0 122.8 66.3 63.3 2.9 7.9 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 18.8 20.4 12.6 97.4 58.8 55.1 10.8 16.6 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.8 14.3 11.3 147.4 71.7 69.8 1.5 3.8 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------