***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.6 8.5 0.8 59.5 58.4 5.8 8.7 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.7 7.9 8.5 0.8 57.4 57.6 5.5 6.9 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.3 9.1 9.0 0.9 57.9 58.5 6.4 7.6 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.2 1.6 5.4 0.3 53.5 53.3 -0.5 0.5 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.5 7.1 0.7 59.4 57.7 6.6 7.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.5 8.4 5.6 0.9 60.5 60.3 5.8 6.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.8 8.5 0.9 57.7 58.4 5.3 6.7 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 -0.4 -0.1 5.9 0.6 57.2 57.2 -2.8 -0.7 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.9 9.2 7.9 0.8 58.0 57.8 6.7 8.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.8 6.7 0.7 57.7 57.7 6.7 8.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.0 7.3 0.8 58.0 58.5 7.3 7.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 8.2 8.1 6.7 0.7 56.8 58.0 6.5 7.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 10.4 9.3 6.8 1.0 61.8 61.4 6.9 8.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.4 8.0 0.7 56.5 56.6 6.3 8.5 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.6 6.9 6.7 0.4 50.2 52.8 5.0 6.8 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.4 6.9 0.9 60.5 60.0 7.2 8.6 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 7.2 7.1 8.3 0.8 57.7 56.8 4.9 6.6 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.9 6.5 0.8 59.1 58.4 6.1 7.4 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.7 7.7 8.7 0.9 58.0 57.9 5.4 6.9 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.8 4.4 0.8 60.8 59.7 2.0 3.4 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.6 8.6 0.8 58.6 58.1 6.7 8.1 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 7.8 8.0 8.4 0.7 57.4 56.0 5.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.6 9.0 0.9 59.2 58.6 6.1 7.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 8.7 9.2 8.0 0.8 57.9 57.8 6.7 8.0 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.7 9.0 7.1 0.8 59.6 58.2 5.6 7.0 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 9.5 9.1 6.0 1.0 59.8 61.8 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 7.9 9.3 8.0 0.9 60.6 59.1 6.1 7.2 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.8 6.1 0.4 52.7 53.4 5.3 7.3 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 4.3 4.7 5.9 0.9 60.1 59.3 1.7 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.7 8.6 0.9 57.4 58.3 5.5 6.9 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------