***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.8 11.5 9.0 -0.2 50.0 49.4 7.6 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.2 10.9 8.9 -0.2 47.9 49.4 7.2 11.0 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.6 11.7 9.4 -0.1 48.9 49.6 8.2 11.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 0.0 3.3 6.5 -0.3 48.6 48.8 0.7 3.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.2 11.6 7.6 -0.1 49.5 49.6 8.0 11.6 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.4 10.7 6.4 0.4 54.4 53.3 7.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 7.1 10.5 8.9 -0.2 47.0 49.3 6.8 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.3 1.0 6.7 0.2 54.0 52.0 -0.7 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.2 11.5 8.2 -0.1 49.2 49.9 9.1 11.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.3 11.8 7.3 0.1 52.0 51.0 8.2 11.6 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.3 11.8 7.6 0.0 50.8 50.3 8.0 11.6 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.3 11.7 7.5 0.2 53.6 52.2 8.7 11.2 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.2 12.4 7.0 0.3 52.9 53.6 9.1 11.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.8 12.0 8.4 0.0 52.0 50.7 8.5 11.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 6.9 9.8 7.0 -0.5 46.4 47.9 5.7 11.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.8 12.3 7.3 0.1 51.7 51.4 9.3 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.6 10.3 8.8 -0.3 47.5 49.1 6.7 10.5 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 11.2 7.3 0.2 54.5 52.2 8.0 10.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.1 11.3 9.2 -0.1 48.3 49.8 7.3 11.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.4 4.9 0.4 55.1 54.1 4.9 6.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.7 11.9 8.8 -0.1 48.6 49.5 8.8 11.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.4 11.1 8.9 -0.3 47.2 49.0 6.7 11.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.2 11.9 9.5 0.0 49.9 50.5 8.2 11.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.5 11.9 8.4 0.1 52.1 50.8 9.0 11.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.3 11.4 7.4 -0.2 50.3 49.2 7.4 11.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.7 11.5 7.0 0.5 54.4 55.8 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.8 11.8 8.4 -0.1 50.4 49.6 8.1 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 7.1 11.3 6.8 -0.3 48.8 49.0 6.9 11.4 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.3 6.5 0.3 54.2 53.1 4.5 6.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.1 10.8 9.0 -0.2 48.3 49.5 7.2 10.9 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------