***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 7.1 10.4 8.6 0.2 49.3 52.0 6.0 10.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.7 8.5 8.5 0.2 50.7 51.6 4.9 8.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.9 8.9 0.1 47.8 51.7 6.9 10.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.1 6.2 0.3 51.8 53.2 0.2 2.7 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.4 7.2 0.2 50.8 52.6 7.3 10.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.2 5.7 0.5 53.3 54.3 7.0 9.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.7 8.4 0.2 50.7 51.4 5.5 8.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.6 6.0 0.3 51.0 53.0 -1.1 0.6 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.8 7.7 0.1 48.1 51.7 7.3 11.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.6 6.8 0.2 50.2 52.3 6.7 10.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.8 7.1 0.3 51.1 53.3 7.2 10.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.4 6.9 0.4 51.6 53.9 7.6 9.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.9 6.4 0.6 55.1 55.7 7.7 10.4 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.5 10.4 7.7 0.0 48.9 51.2 6.5 10.5 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.5 6.8 0.3 50.6 52.8 5.0 8.4 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.8 6.8 0.5 53.6 54.4 8.4 10.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.1 7.8 8.3 0.0 51.1 50.6 5.0 7.5 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.2 6.6 0.1 50.8 51.8 6.8 10.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.9 8.7 0.2 50.2 51.9 5.5 8.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.2 4.2 0.2 52.3 52.5 3.6 5.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.4 8.3 0.1 48.6 51.5 7.3 10.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.8 8.9 8.3 0.0 49.4 50.5 5.3 9.2 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.4 9.4 8.9 0.2 49.8 52.1 6.9 9.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.4 7.8 0.1 48.5 51.3 7.2 10.6 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.8 9.0 7.0 0.3 51.6 52.9 6.4 8.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 6.2 0.7 56.7 56.7 8.3 10.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.7 9.4 7.9 0.3 50.2 52.4 7.1 9.4 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.6 8.7 6.4 0.3 51.5 53.0 6.5 8.7 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 5.8 0.2 51.1 52.0 3.4 6.4 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.2 8.5 0.2 50.1 51.8 5.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------