***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.9 9.9 9.2 1.7 64.9 63.0 4.4 7.1 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 8.3 9.1 9.5 2.0 67.5 64.5 3.8 5.1 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.2 8.5 9.6 1.7 64.6 62.5 4.6 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.2 0.3 5.2 0.4 53.3 52.7 -1.6 0.2 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.0 7.4 1.1 57.0 58.2 4.4 6.5 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.7 5.7 1.0 59.9 58.3 4.1 6.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 8.0 8.7 9.4 2.1 68.5 66.0 3.5 5.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -1.0 -0.3 6.1 0.9 58.5 57.4 -3.6 -1.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.6 8.7 8.5 1.3 58.9 59.7 5.1 6.5 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.7 7.1 1.1 59.6 58.3 4.8 7.0 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.6 8.5 7.7 1.1 57.9 58.0 5.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.9 6.9 0.9 56.8 57.6 4.7 7.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.8 7.3 1.3 59.5 59.9 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.6 9.3 8.8 1.4 62.7 60.0 4.8 7.4 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.9 6.6 6.8 0.7 53.9 54.1 4.0 6.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.6 7.2 1.2 58.2 58.6 6.1 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 8.2 8.2 9.2 2.0 68.3 65.2 3.1 5.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.5 6.9 1.3 61.2 59.4 4.5 6.1 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.8 9.1 9.6 2.0 67.0 64.1 3.0 5.8 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.8 4.9 1.3 63.1 60.9 1.5 3.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.5 8.3 9.2 1.4 60.4 60.6 5.0 6.4 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 8.6 8.8 9.3 1.9 67.5 64.3 3.4 5.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.1 9.3 9.8 1.9 67.0 63.8 3.9 6.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.7 9.3 8.7 1.4 62.4 60.1 4.6 6.8 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.2 7.6 1.4 61.9 60.8 3.5 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.3 6.2 1.2 59.9 60.7 5.8 6.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 9.1 9.5 8.7 1.8 66.5 63.8 4.7 6.3 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.1 6.5 5.9 0.4 53.4 52.1 4.4 6.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.4 6.4 1.4 62.3 60.5 0.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 8.0 8.7 9.5 2.0 67.6 64.5 3.5 5.2 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------