***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 5.3 7.1 7.4 1.6 60.4 60.8 2.4 5.0 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 4.1 5.1 7.3 1.3 56.3 57.5 2.4 3.7 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 5.0 7.0 7.9 1.7 62.4 61.8 2.7 4.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 -0.2 -0.4 3.9 0.9 55.2 56.5 -3.4 -0.5 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 5.5 7.1 6.3 1.7 64.4 63.7 2.5 4.8 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 7.2 7.5 4.7 1.7 68.5 65.3 2.3 5.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 3.9 4.6 7.2 1.4 58.4 58.3 2.1 3.5 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 -2.0 -1.5 4.7 1.1 58.0 57.6 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 5.5 7.5 7.3 1.7 63.8 62.8 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 5.2 6.8 5.8 1.5 61.0 60.6 2.8 4.8 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 5.7 7.5 6.9 1.8 66.3 64.2 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 5.7 6.7 5.6 1.4 60.8 59.9 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 8.5 7.8 6.7 1.9 67.0 65.3 3.3 6.0 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 5.1 7.9 7.1 1.3 58.3 58.9 3.2 4.4 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 4.8 5.0 6.1 1.0 58.0 58.6 3.5 4.4 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 9.0 8.2 6.4 2.0 69.1 66.2 3.3 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 3.4 3.8 6.8 1.2 54.9 56.5 2.5 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 4.9 6.4 5.4 1.6 61.4 60.9 2.7 4.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 3.8 6.3 7.5 1.4 57.4 58.2 2.1 3.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 2.5 3.5 3.7 1.5 60.4 60.2 0.1 2.3 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 5.2 7.3 8.0 1.7 63.7 63.2 2.7 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 4.4 4.8 7.1 1.1 54.6 55.6 2.5 4.0 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 4.1 6.9 7.7 1.5 61.0 59.8 2.5 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.3 7.5 7.2 1.6 61.4 61.2 3.0 4.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 4.5 6.0 6.5 1.6 62.8 62.5 2.5 4.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 5.7 6.8 4.8 1.4 58.3 60.2 3.3 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 5.2 5.8 6.9 1.6 61.0 61.5 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 4.8 5.3 5.1 1.0 57.5 58.2 3.7 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 2.5 3.3 5.0 1.6 61.3 61.2 -0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 4.0 5.5 7.4 1.4 59.0 58.8 2.0 3.6 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------