***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.7 74.0 68.6 -1.6 -0.2 0.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -0.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 67.1 65.6 -2.5 -1.1 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 2.1 2.2 0.6 1.5 67.7 66.4 -0.2 0.8 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -4.4 -4.1 -2.3 1.2 63.0 62.6 -6.4 -4.9 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 -0.7 -1.0 -1.5 1.5 67.0 66.7 -2.2 -1.7 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 -1.7 -1.8 -3.9 1.4 68.9 66.4 -2.9 -2.3 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 -0.6 0.4 0.4 1.5 68.4 66.0 -2.1 -1.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -6.4 -6.3 -3.8 1.3 65.3 64.8 -9.4 -7.8 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 0.1 0.1 -1.2 1.5 66.6 67.2 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 0.1 -0.3 -3.0 1.4 65.0 65.6 -1.7 -0.8 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 -0.2 -0.2 -2.1 1.6 67.9 67.6 -1.7 -1.0 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.6 -2.8 1.5 68.2 66.9 -2.8 -2.2 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.5 -2.9 1.6 68.6 67.7 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 -0.2 0.3 -1.6 1.3 64.5 64.7 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 0.6 0.2 -0.9 1.4 67.5 65.9 -1.6 -0.8 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.3 -2.5 1.7 70.5 68.8 -1.2 -0.6 0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -0.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 63.2 63.2 -1.8 -1.0 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 -2.3 -2.1 -3.5 1.4 66.8 65.3 -3.4 -2.9 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 -0.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 67.4 65.9 -2.2 -1.2 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -4.6 -4.5 -5.1 1.2 67.4 64.8 -7.1 -5.9 -4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.5 66.4 66.0 -2.0 -1.0 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 -0.9 -0.2 0.1 1.2 63.3 63.2 -2.3 -1.1 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 -0.5 -0.7 0.2 1.5 67.7 66.5 -2.2 -1.2 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -0.6 -1.7 1.3 65.5 64.7 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 1.7 70.8 68.5 -1.9 -1.1 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -0.4 -0.4 -3.1 1.5 68.2 66.5 -1.9 -1.4 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.7 72.1 68.5 -2.3 -0.5 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 1.1 62.7 62.3 -3.5 -2.2 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 -2.8 -2.3 -4.1 1.4 69.0 66.8 -5.7 -4.2 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.5 69.6 67.0 -1.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------