***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 -0.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 50.0 52.4 -0.8 1.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 50.0 51.4 -0.8 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 0.6 2.4 0.3 0.1 48.4 51.7 1.2 2.9 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -6.8 -4.4 -2.9 -0.4 41.9 48.7 -4.7 -3.3 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 43.7 50.7 -1.2 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -2.5 -1.2 -4.1 0.3 46.6 53.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 49.7 51.2 -0.9 0.8 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -5.3 -6.4 -4.1 0.1 45.1 52.5 -8.3 -5.7 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -0.9 0.6 -1.9 -0.1 43.2 51.1 -0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.4 -3.4 0.0 44.1 51.6 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 1.0 0.2 -2.8 0.1 45.0 52.4 -0.3 0.5 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.7 -3.3 0.3 45.2 53.5 -2.0 -0.2 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -1.7 -0.2 -3.3 0.5 49.3 54.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -0.4 0.5 -2.0 0.0 44.3 51.6 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -0.9 0.2 -1.8 -0.4 41.5 48.5 -0.7 1.4 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 -0.6 0.7 -3.1 0.3 46.2 53.1 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -0.9 0.6 0.2 -0.1 47.1 50.2 -0.6 1.0 2.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -2.7 -1.8 -4.0 0.1 44.9 52.4 -2.2 -1.1 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 -1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 49.9 51.7 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -6.9 -4.1 -5.3 0.3 48.0 53.5 -6.9 -4.0 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -1.2 0.9 -0.6 0.0 44.7 51.0 -0.2 1.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -1.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 46.8 50.3 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 48.2 51.7 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -1.0 0.0 -2.3 -0.1 44.0 51.4 -1.0 0.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -0.9 0.8 -1.2 0.0 46.0 51.5 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -1.5 0.1 -3.4 0.4 48.4 54.6 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -1.0 1.0 -0.2 0.2 50.2 52.6 -0.1 1.0 1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -2.6 -1.0 -2.6 -0.4 42.0 48.8 -1.7 -0.7 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -2.2 -4.5 0.1 46.7 53.0 -3.3 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -0.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 50.9 52.0 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------