***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.7 73.5 71.2 -3.6 -2.1 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.2 2.4 68.9 68.3 -4.8 -2.8 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 0.5 1.2 0.1 2.3 70.1 68.4 -2.8 -1.3 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -6.2 -5.0 -2.9 1.7 63.6 62.6 -9.4 -6.5 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 2.3 69.8 68.6 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 -2.5 -2.2 -4.4 1.9 65.0 63.8 -5.3 -4.0 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 2.7 70.5 69.7 -4.2 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -8.8 -7.7 -4.3 1.8 63.0 62.3 -11.8 -9.1 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6 2.2 67.2 67.0 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 -2.1 -1.1 -3.5 1.9 63.2 62.9 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.2 2.1 66.0 66.2 -4.2 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 -1.8 -2.3 -3.0 2.2 66.1 66.1 -5.1 -3.0 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.7 2.3 67.2 66.6 -4.2 -2.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 -1.8 -0.2 -2.1 2.0 62.3 63.8 -3.6 -2.1 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 2.2 67.8 67.1 -3.6 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 -0.4 -0.4 -2.3 2.5 69.2 68.8 -3.1 -1.8 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 -1.3 -1.2 -0.5 2.3 67.1 66.4 -4.5 -2.6 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 -3.9 -3.0 -3.8 1.9 62.7 63.6 -5.5 -4.2 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3 2.3 68.4 67.8 -4.0 -3.2 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -6.9 -5.5 -5.4 1.7 64.0 62.9 -9.8 -7.3 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4 2.3 68.8 67.9 -4.3 -3.0 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 2.1 66.4 65.9 -4.3 -2.7 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 2.2 69.0 67.9 -4.2 -3.3 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 -2.7 -1.4 -2.0 1.9 63.1 64.0 -4.6 -3.0 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 2.8 73.7 71.5 -3.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 -1.5 -1.2 -3.4 2.0 65.3 64.5 -4.1 -2.9 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 2.8 73.8 71.4 -4.2 -2.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 -3.1 -2.0 -2.5 1.6 62.4 61.7 -5.1 -3.3 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 -3.8 -3.7 -4.7 2.0 65.1 64.5 -8.5 -5.2 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 2.5 70.6 69.7 -4.2 -2.5 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------