***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 37.5 43.6 51.5 106.0 61.7 54.4 21.8 31.7 44.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 34.4 33.6 43.5 102.1 59.1 53.5 17.9 29.4 35.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 41.2 44.2 52.3 108.1 63.4 55.9 28.9 33.5 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 47.8 54.5 61.3 108.7 62.4 56.3 29.0 39.3 59.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 43.0 44.2 60.1 109.6 63.3 57.9 32.3 36.5 45.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 38.7 43.9 58.3 112.0 65.1 59.3 23.4 32.3 44.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.2 26.8 42.6 102.3 58.4 53.4 18.9 24.9 31.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 67.9 70.2 63.2 107.7 60.0 56.8 54.8 61.2 72.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 36.1 38.5 60.2 108.8 61.3 57.9 26.2 32.5 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 44.2 50.1 64.5 109.7 61.9 58.8 29.4 39.7 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 38.4 35.7 58.6 109.3 61.8 58.1 23.5 32.8 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 40.6 41.4 56.8 107.8 59.6 56.6 32.3 38.3 42.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 47.4 50.5 61.5 113.4 64.8 60.1 29.8 42.4 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 55.9 66.1 65.8 109.9 64.7 57.5 37.8 51.5 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 44.2 43.7 57.8 108.3 62.8 55.2 15.9 35.5 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 38.7 42.9 58.7 112.1 64.2 59.5 25.8 36.3 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 30.7 27.9 41.3 100.3 54.5 52.7 17.8 26.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 42.0 46.8 68.3 110.5 64.1 58.7 30.1 38.2 47.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 39.7 37.4 45.4 102.7 59.8 53.5 23.4 35.8 38.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 45.9 42.7 78.6 103.5 57.0 53.1 29.7 40.3 48.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 42.3 44.4 57.2 109.3 62.7 56.9 25.3 37.8 46.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 32.8 32.3 43.7 101.5 56.6 53.2 22.0 30.8 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 33.3 34.4 49.6 104.1 61.2 54.0 24.4 30.6 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 53.5 60.3 63.5 112.3 66.3 58.9 32.1 48.5 60.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 44.8 49.9 60.9 109.8 62.5 56.9 23.5 36.3 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 38.3 39.4 58.8 109.7 59.0 57.3 30.9 35.6 44.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 31.3 39.9 54.5 107.3 62.0 55.3 18.4 23.4 46.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 41.2 46.0 58.0 109.3 63.4 56.8 21.5 35.1 48.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 71.3 70.6 72.2 109.0 62.4 56.9 52.3 61.9 71.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 34.9 34.8 45.7 103.9 61.4 54.1 21.5 27.9 38.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------