***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.9 10.5 75.1 45.8 39.9 3.6 6.0 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.4 8.8 72.6 47.3 42.0 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.1 10.8 77.7 47.8 41.2 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.6 13.3 87.7 53.3 46.3 4.5 6.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.2 12.9 84.7 52.2 44.7 3.6 4.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.9 3.9 12.6 90.9 53.2 49.0 1.9 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.3 8.8 74.8 48.9 42.7 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 13.3 13.2 84.1 50.9 44.9 8.9 13.1 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.8 4.3 13.5 84.3 52.4 44.8 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.4 14.0 85.1 51.3 45.3 2.3 6.1 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.2 12.4 87.3 52.9 46.0 1.5 3.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.3 11.7 85.8 51.5 45.5 2.8 3.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.4 12.5 88.9 50.9 47.1 3.5 7.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 7.4 13.5 78.9 48.5 42.1 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.9 13.5 93.0 59.1 49.6 1.0 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.5 12.4 90.4 52.0 47.9 2.4 5.3 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.0 8.4 73.6 47.9 42.6 0.9 2.5 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.9 14.6 83.3 51.6 44.4 1.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.7 9.1 72.4 46.6 41.3 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.5 16.2 76.5 49.2 42.2 2.4 3.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.9 12.3 81.9 50.4 42.8 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.4 2.7 8.9 74.4 51.0 42.8 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.0 10.0 74.0 45.9 40.8 1.4 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 8.2 13.5 83.0 51.7 43.7 2.0 8.2 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.4 12.5 80.2 48.1 42.7 2.3 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.0 11.9 85.3 52.6 45.7 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.4 11.1 76.8 46.1 41.4 1.7 4.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.3 13.0 92.0 56.1 48.6 1.8 3.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 10.3 14.9 80.0 49.9 43.5 4.6 10.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.3 9.2 72.8 47.3 41.3 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------