***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.0 13.3 101.8 57.6 49.6 1.1 6.0 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.2 12.0 106.5 63.7 51.0 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.4 13.4 13.1 99.4 54.8 48.4 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 92.3 53.7 47.9 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 8.4 13.3 89.0 50.4 46.8 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.8 13.8 98.4 56.8 49.6 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.4 11.3 102.1 60.1 50.3 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.2 15.6 14.6 90.9 52.7 48.0 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.1 14.2 91.1 50.4 47.5 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.0 14.9 91.0 51.1 47.8 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.9 12.8 88.8 50.9 46.8 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 12.9 90.8 53.3 47.5 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.1 7.8 13.3 92.5 53.2 46.9 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.0 16.6 98.7 53.3 48.2 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 19.6 13.8 96.0 58.4 48.6 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.5 12.7 90.5 52.6 46.7 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.1 11.1 103.4 62.0 51.4 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.8 16.5 95.5 51.9 49.0 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.6 9.8 12.4 106.0 60.6 50.3 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.6 19.6 93.7 54.2 48.4 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.7 6.0 13.5 93.2 51.0 47.7 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.8 12.1 109.5 61.2 52.6 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.6 13.0 101.3 53.9 48.7 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.1 15.5 97.9 52.7 48.5 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.2 8.8 14.6 99.4 53.2 49.8 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.6 13.5 96.4 54.8 49.3 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.7 14.1 104.5 58.2 50.7 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.9 8.5 13.2 92.5 55.3 47.7 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 12.5 17.9 97.5 54.5 49.1 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.5 12.5 107.2 61.3 50.6 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------