***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.7 11.7 93.2 58.5 46.9 2.6 6.0 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 5.0 9.9 91.8 59.3 49.6 1.1 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.6 10.1 11.9 95.5 59.0 48.0 2.8 4.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.5 13.8 92.9 56.7 49.9 3.8 5.7 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.3 12.1 85.9 50.7 45.0 3.2 5.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.3 5.9 10.9 80.8 49.2 45.5 2.2 5.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.6 9.4 90.0 57.1 47.6 1.8 3.3 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.8 13.0 12.1 81.0 48.7 42.8 9.2 13.2 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.1 13.0 93.1 53.5 47.2 2.4 4.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.8 12.1 83.7 48.9 43.3 3.3 4.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.1 11.6 81.8 48.3 43.4 2.2 4.2 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.9 11.3 80.5 48.5 43.1 2.7 4.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.4 11.1 78.0 44.6 43.2 3.8 8.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.6 14.7 99.4 58.4 49.2 3.7 7.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.5 13.9 98.5 62.7 53.5 0.7 2.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.6 11.2 80.2 46.7 43.6 3.3 6.9 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.2 9.5 93.0 56.8 49.3 1.4 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.4 13.2 87.5 51.5 44.3 4.0 7.2 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.9 10.5 92.3 59.6 49.8 2.0 3.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 7.9 15.1 78.7 46.7 41.5 4.4 10.5 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.0 13.3 99.7 60.5 48.9 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.6 10.2 92.4 57.6 49.8 1.1 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.1 11.7 93.7 58.6 49.9 2.4 4.4 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.4 13.8 98.0 57.2 48.3 4.7 5.8 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.2 6.9 12.9 90.5 55.8 45.9 1.9 4.8 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.9 11.7 80.7 45.3 43.2 3.3 9.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.4 11.5 88.5 55.1 45.5 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.4 12.9 91.6 56.7 50.1 1.6 2.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.7 14.3 14.1 86.2 49.8 43.5 7.6 14.3 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.6 10.3 91.9 60.7 49.1 2.1 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------