***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 15.7 23.6 16.0 178.3 79.6 73.7 0.7 4.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 8.7 10.4 12.8 152.2 74.4 69.8 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 19.2 31.5 16.5 187.1 84.1 74.9 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 19.1 23.8 20.4 178.5 82.2 73.9 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 18.8 32.2 21.9 205.6 89.6 79.5 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 16.3 24.6 21.0 197.4 87.4 79.1 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.8 7.8 13.1 157.1 75.3 70.8 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 27.0 34.7 23.4 193.5 87.0 78.0 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 15.3 29.3 19.5 199.9 89.2 78.0 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 19.3 30.2 23.5 204.8 89.5 80.0 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 15.7 27.0 21.9 202.0 89.1 78.2 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 21.8 31.8 20.9 193.9 86.6 77.5 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 25.2 34.1 24.6 212.3 89.7 82.1 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 18.9 25.8 21.1 188.2 86.7 76.1 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 9.4 14.5 16.5 160.4 76.1 68.3 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 15.6 34.0 22.6 208.5 89.4 80.0 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 6.5 5.9 12.2 140.4 72.4 69.1 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 19.3 34.6 24.0 202.0 89.0 80.7 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 12.4 17.1 13.4 157.5 76.1 70.5 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 16.8 23.6 27.7 182.2 84.6 78.7 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 18.9 27.8 18.1 190.6 85.8 76.4 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 8.6 7.8 12.5 138.5 72.2 67.8 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 12.6 16.4 14.9 169.5 79.5 71.8 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 17.9 25.8 20.7 200.0 88.4 77.8 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 23.9 36.5 21.0 190.4 83.8 76.9 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 17.5 24.1 21.7 194.3 86.0 78.5 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.9 25.2 17.7 182.2 81.1 74.9 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 14.5 23.5 18.8 178.5 81.7 72.5 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 32.0 41.6 25.3 194.8 88.0 80.3 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 9.1 12.4 13.7 162.3 77.3 71.4 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------