***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.9 7.1 0.1 48.5 50.5 5.9 8.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.7 6.6 7.2 0.2 46.4 50.3 5.2 6.9 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.3 7.4 0.0 46.8 49.3 6.3 7.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.4 0.0 4.0 -0.3 45.1 46.6 -0.6 0.7 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.2 5.3 -0.4 42.9 47.0 6.3 7.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.5 3.8 -0.4 46.0 46.7 5.5 6.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.3 6.3 7.2 0.3 48.7 51.3 5.1 6.5 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -2.1 4.0 -0.6 42.2 44.4 -2.9 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.8 7.3 6.2 -0.3 43.5 47.5 6.7 8.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.4 4.8 -0.6 42.3 45.0 6.5 7.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.7 5.5 -0.3 45.4 47.5 7.0 7.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.1 4.9 -0.4 44.4 46.5 6.2 7.4 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.7 4.8 -0.5 44.0 46.7 6.7 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 6.4 -0.3 44.5 46.6 6.4 8.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.1 5.6 0.1 46.6 49.2 4.7 6.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.9 5.0 -0.4 45.0 47.2 7.0 8.2 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.3 6.4 7.1 0.2 46.6 50.5 4.8 6.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 6.5 4.6 -0.6 43.4 45.2 5.9 7.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.7 6.6 7.3 0.2 46.1 50.0 5.2 6.7 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.2 2.5 2.4 -0.7 41.7 43.2 2.0 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.8 7.5 6.9 -0.2 45.9 48.2 6.4 8.0 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.8 6.5 7.2 0.1 46.0 49.4 5.5 6.8 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.1 7.5 0.1 46.1 49.8 6.1 7.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.5 6.2 -0.4 43.9 46.5 6.5 7.8 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.5 5.6 -0.1 47.4 49.4 5.4 6.7 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.4 4.2 -0.4 44.8 46.9 6.3 7.6 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.0 6.5 0.1 47.8 50.5 6.1 7.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.4 6.6 4.6 -0.3 44.5 46.6 5.2 7.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.3 2.2 3.9 -0.6 43.6 44.7 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.6 6.5 7.2 0.2 46.9 50.3 5.4 6.8 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------