***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.8 10.9 8.5 -0.1 45.4 47.6 7.4 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.4 9.6 8.6 0.0 44.8 48.4 7.6 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.6 12.0 9.1 0.1 45.9 48.7 8.5 12.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -0.1 3.5 6.0 -0.1 47.1 47.9 0.4 3.5 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 7.1 11.5 7.1 -0.1 47.3 48.2 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.9 10.6 5.6 -0.1 49.1 48.3 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.6 9.6 8.5 0.0 44.5 47.9 7.0 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.2 0.9 6.3 0.2 50.5 50.4 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.4 11.8 7.8 0.0 46.7 48.7 8.8 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.4 12.0 6.9 0.1 49.0 49.4 8.8 12.1 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.4 11.9 7.2 0.1 49.4 49.3 8.4 12.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.2 11.3 7.0 0.2 50.4 50.4 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.4 12.1 6.3 0.1 49.9 49.1 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.0 12.4 8.2 0.2 48.9 49.7 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.5 10.4 6.6 -0.1 47.6 48.1 5.5 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 8.2 12.4 6.7 0.0 48.7 48.5 9.6 12.5 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 6.8 9.5 8.5 0.1 45.6 48.4 6.6 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 11.2 6.9 0.3 49.9 50.3 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 11.1 8.9 0.1 45.5 49.0 7.7 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.7 4.6 0.4 51.5 51.5 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.9 11.9 8.4 0.0 46.8 48.1 8.6 12.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 6.7 11.4 8.7 0.2 46.1 49.3 7.1 11.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.9 11.7 9.2 0.2 46.8 49.6 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.6 12.2 8.0 0.2 48.5 49.6 8.6 12.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.3 10.4 6.9 -0.1 46.4 47.6 7.3 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.7 11.8 6.2 0.3 51.7 50.5 10.2 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.8 10.6 7.8 -0.1 45.6 47.2 8.1 11.9 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.7 10.1 6.2 -0.2 47.8 47.7 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 6.9 6.2 0.4 50.7 50.8 4.5 6.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.7 8.6 0.0 44.7 48.3 7.4 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------