***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.7 7.9 0.4 53.1 52.5 6.0 10.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.8 7.9 0.4 52.0 52.9 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.4 9.7 8.3 0.5 53.7 52.7 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.1 5.4 0.3 52.9 51.7 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 10.1 6.5 0.3 54.1 52.4 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.4 4.8 -0.1 51.6 50.5 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.6 7.9 0.4 52.9 53.1 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.0 1.8 5.3 0.1 55.0 51.6 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.1 11.7 7.1 0.3 55.5 52.3 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.9 6.0 0.2 55.5 51.7 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.8 6.5 0.3 54.5 52.8 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.4 6.1 0.2 53.9 52.4 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.5 5.3 0.0 50.8 51.0 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 11.5 7.3 0.4 54.8 52.0 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.1 6.3 0.5 52.1 52.4 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.0 10.5 5.9 0.1 51.6 51.6 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.8 7.8 0.4 53.9 52.5 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 10.3 5.9 0.2 56.6 51.7 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.9 7.7 8.1 0.5 52.1 52.9 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.5 3.3 -0.1 53.8 50.8 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.7 11.3 7.7 0.4 55.6 52.3 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.1 8.0 0.4 53.1 52.5 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.1 8.4 0.5 54.1 52.7 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.2 11.6 7.2 0.3 55.9 52.1 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.2 6.2 0.3 54.5 52.5 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 5.2 0.0 51.2 51.6 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.6 7.2 0.3 53.7 52.5 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.9 5.7 0.3 52.4 51.6 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.8 5.0 0.1 55.6 51.5 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.4 7.9 0.5 52.2 53.0 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------