***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 7.2 0.4 52.2 51.2 4.5 7.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.4 7.5 0.7 52.7 53.5 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.5 7.6 0.3 51.4 50.9 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -0.7 3.3 -0.7 41.4 43.2 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.7 5.2 -0.4 46.1 45.9 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.0 4.0 -0.2 48.9 47.6 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.3 7.5 0.9 56.5 54.8 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -2.3 4.2 -0.4 47.0 47.1 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.3 6.3 -0.2 47.7 47.5 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.7 5.0 -0.4 46.8 47.1 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.8 5.7 -0.3 46.9 46.8 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.3 6.7 5.0 -0.3 46.5 47.5 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.8 5.2 -0.3 46.7 47.5 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.6 6.9 6.8 0.0 49.1 49.8 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.1 5.1 -0.3 43.4 45.2 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.8 5.1 -0.3 46.7 47.0 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.9 7.4 0.9 54.4 55.0 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.3 5.0 -0.1 49.2 49.3 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.1 7.6 0.6 51.9 52.8 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.7 3.1 -0.1 52.1 50.3 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.0 7.1 0.0 49.5 48.8 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.0 7.5 0.7 53.1 53.4 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.3 7.7 0.5 51.5 52.2 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.8 6.7 0.0 49.0 49.7 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.2 5.6 0.0 50.2 49.0 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.5 4.4 -0.1 48.8 47.9 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.6 6.7 0.4 54.2 51.8 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.2 4.1 -0.7 41.1 43.3 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.8 4.5 0.0 50.4 50.2 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 7.4 0.6 52.8 52.8 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------