***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 3.7 3.6 4.8 -0.2 50.6 49.4 2.3 3.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 3.9 3.5 4.8 -0.3 49.6 48.1 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 4.7 3.4 4.5 -0.8 46.7 45.0 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 -0.4 -1.0 1.4 -0.7 48.8 47.1 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.0 3.0 2.5 -1.3 42.0 42.4 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.3 2.8 0.9 -1.4 38.0 39.6 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 3.2 3.0 4.8 -0.1 51.3 49.0 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -5.2 -4.8 0.3 -2.5 28.7 30.2 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.3 4.2 3.5 -1.3 42.1 42.1 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.2 1.3 -2.2 33.1 33.9 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.1 4.1 2.8 -1.5 39.9 40.3 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.1 2.9 1.5 -1.9 33.9 34.8 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.7 3.4 2.4 -1.7 34.3 36.6 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.7 3.4 3.2 -1.8 37.3 36.9 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 97 3 100 4.6 4.9 4.3 0.2 54.4 54.2 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.5 3.7 2.4 -1.3 38.9 40.5 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 3.4 3.0 4.5 -0.3 48.6 47.5 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.6 2.6 0.5 -2.6 30.1 30.4 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 4.0 2.9 4.7 -0.5 48.3 46.7 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 -1.6 -3.1 24.0 25.1 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 4.8 3.5 4.3 -1.1 45.5 43.9 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 4.3 3.5 4.5 -0.7 46.9 45.2 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 4.5 3.2 4.5 -0.8 45.8 44.5 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.9 3.4 2.9 -2.0 35.9 35.9 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 4.1 4.0 3.5 -0.5 50.5 48.6 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.7 3.4 1.0 -1.8 33.4 34.7 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 4.3 4.1 4.3 -0.3 50.6 48.8 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 4.7 4.1 2.6 -0.6 47.3 47.7 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 -2.8 26.5 28.0 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 3.5 3.2 4.8 -0.3 50.2 48.1 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------