***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 1.0 58.0 55.9 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.3 -0.4 1.0 57.7 56.1 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -1.7 0.0 -0.4 0.8 52.1 53.8 -0.7 -0.1 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -4.3 -5.9 -3.8 0.0 43.2 46.5 -7.3 -5.1 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -3.7 -2.5 -2.8 0.2 44.4 48.5 -2.9 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -2.8 -5.4 -0.3 42.2 43.6 -3.7 -2.6 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -1.3 -0.4 1.0 57.1 56.1 -2.4 -1.8 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -11.0 -8.5 -4.9 0.1 44.6 47.0 -9.2 -7.5 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -1.3 -2.6 0.3 45.1 50.2 -1.7 -1.0 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -1.5 -4.2 0.1 44.0 47.7 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.8 -3.5 0.2 43.2 47.4 -2.1 -1.5 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -5.1 -3.1 -4.1 0.0 43.7 46.4 -3.5 -2.7 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -3.9 -1.8 -4.6 -0.5 38.8 41.5 -2.9 -1.7 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -2.8 -1.2 -3.0 0.0 43.7 48.0 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.8 -2.0 0.7 48.7 52.3 -2.1 -0.8 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -2.9 -1.5 -4.2 -0.2 40.9 44.7 -1.7 -1.0 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 1.0 59.0 56.7 -2.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -3.8 -4.9 -0.1 42.2 46.8 -4.5 -3.6 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.1 -0.5 0.9 56.6 55.4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -9.2 -6.3 -5.8 0.1 47.8 49.3 -8.2 -6.1 -5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.7 -1.2 0.6 47.4 51.9 -2.3 -1.6 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.1 -0.5 0.9 57.3 56.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -3.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.8 55.4 54.3 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -1.9 -3.0 0.1 42.4 48.4 -2.3 -1.5 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 0.8 52.1 53.7 -2.6 -1.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -2.0 -4.5 -0.2 40.7 44.6 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 1.0 57.4 55.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -2.7 -3.5 -0.1 41.9 46.0 -3.3 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -7.2 -4.7 -5.5 0.0 43.2 47.5 -6.3 -4.0 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 1.0 56.8 56.0 -2.5 -1.5 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------