***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 56.0 127.8 74.4 69.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 44.9 39.9 53.3 124.8 72.0 67.8 17.9 29.4 35.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 56.9 72.5 57.1 131.2 78.6 71.4 28.9 33.5 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 66.8 83.0 66.0 141.5 80.6 75.5 29.0 39.3 59.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 56.8 64.6 62.6 135.1 78.3 72.5 32.3 36.5 45.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 50.1 50.2 62.0 123.7 72.3 68.7 23.4 32.3 44.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 41.3 37.5 52.8 123.0 70.3 67.0 18.9 24.9 31.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 85.5 103.4 70.9 141.5 82.7 75.7 54.8 61.2 72.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 46.0 51.4 62.0 133.8 79.7 72.2 26.2 32.5 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 56.2 66.0 67.3 134.8 80.2 73.1 29.4 39.7 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 51.8 63.6 60.1 136.0 80.4 72.5 23.5 32.8 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 45.2 57.8 62.1 139.5 82.1 73.9 32.3 38.3 42.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 58.7 63.4 62.6 130.4 76.6 70.9 29.8 42.4 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 67.4 79.4 67.8 129.1 79.6 71.8 37.8 51.5 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 63.2 81.7 67.4 150.0 83.6 78.5 15.9 35.5 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 44.0 46.9 60.6 133.8 78.0 71.7 25.8 36.3 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 41.7 44.3 51.3 123.3 70.4 66.8 17.8 26.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 52.5 61.6 74.4 133.2 81.3 73.3 30.1 38.2 47.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 47.3 43.8 54.7 126.4 73.9 68.6 23.4 35.8 38.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 62.1 92.1 96.3 145.6 85.0 78.6 29.7 40.3 48.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 51.7 60.9 58.9 132.6 79.7 71.7 25.3 37.8 46.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 36.8 39.4 54.1 126.3 73.9 67.5 22.0 30.8 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 38.7 43.7 57.6 127.5 76.2 69.6 24.4 30.6 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 66.0 77.7 66.3 131.4 80.3 72.2 32.1 48.5 60.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 59.2 65.6 63.4 128.3 74.6 69.5 23.5 36.3 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 44.6 48.8 65.8 141.8 83.8 75.5 30.9 35.6 44.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 44.7 55.1 60.0 124.5 72.2 68.0 18.4 23.4 46.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 54.2 66.8 64.5 143.8 80.7 75.8 21.5 35.1 48.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 94.3 114.1 81.6 134.7 83.5 74.3 52.3 61.9 71.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 47.5 51.3 54.2 125.8 74.2 68.6 21.5 27.9 38.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------