***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 125.9 66.6 60.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 9.2 8.2 10.9 125.1 70.3 60.4 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.5 10.4 11.0 128.3 69.1 61.8 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.2 11.1 117.7 64.1 59.1 4.5 6.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.6 11.1 118.0 62.8 59.6 3.6 4.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.1 11.3 12.6 117.4 64.9 59.9 1.9 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.6 7.3 11.1 124.4 69.4 60.2 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.8 18.8 11.8 112.7 63.4 57.9 8.9 13.1 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.1 8.8 11.4 120.1 64.5 60.2 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.1 12.1 116.0 63.7 58.9 2.3 6.1 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.1 6.9 10.4 112.4 60.2 58.4 1.5 3.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.2 7.4 10.1 109.9 61.7 57.5 2.8 3.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.7 10.0 11.3 113.0 64.5 58.7 3.5 7.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.8 13.2 13.0 119.3 65.6 60.3 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.8 10.4 118.0 65.0 58.9 1.0 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.6 10.6 111.7 62.5 58.4 2.4 5.3 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.1 5.9 10.5 120.2 68.2 59.8 0.9 2.5 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.2 13.6 115.4 63.7 58.6 1.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 15.9 10.9 125.7 70.8 60.9 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.9 7.7 15.7 112.3 64.6 57.2 2.4 3.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 5.1 7.0 11.0 123.8 63.4 60.7 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.7 9.5 10.9 123.5 69.2 60.2 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.2 11.2 125.2 71.7 61.5 1.4 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.9 12.6 121.2 66.4 60.3 2.0 8.2 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.2 12.2 121.3 63.1 59.3 2.3 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 4.8 7.1 10.8 117.8 63.6 59.4 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 8.6 7.6 12.2 123.8 65.3 60.2 1.7 4.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.1 8.1 10.4 114.4 64.2 58.8 1.8 3.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 14.4 14.4 112.4 63.4 57.3 4.6 10.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 12.3 11.1 11.0 127.1 70.2 61.0 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------