***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 139.7 74.4 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 10.5 14.9 13.1 132.1 75.6 63.9 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 13.5 18.5 14.3 150.2 77.9 69.0 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.6 23.8 16.6 161.7 80.8 71.1 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 18.8 24.1 16.7 163.2 82.3 70.9 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 15.1 14.1 17.6 144.4 73.1 68.5 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 10.5 13.4 12.9 127.5 72.6 61.3 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 21.2 24.7 18.7 164.4 79.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 13.9 18.8 16.7 163.6 81.8 70.2 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.8 22.7 18.3 163.9 80.0 70.6 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.5 16.2 16.2 164.6 81.2 71.1 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 14.4 18.8 16.7 162.8 78.9 70.9 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 16.1 18.0 17.2 149.9 74.2 69.2 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 17.7 22.6 17.3 154.6 80.1 70.4 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 21.2 27.7 15.7 162.3 81.1 71.2 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 16.2 18.5 16.3 156.6 77.6 70.6 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 9.9 14.4 12.7 128.0 72.6 60.6 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 10.9 13.7 19.9 161.3 80.5 70.4 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.1 13.9 13.4 137.3 75.6 66.1 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 12.7 16.1 23.8 159.0 80.2 69.9 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 17.1 27.3 15.5 157.8 79.8 69.1 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.3 14.7 13.3 133.1 73.6 62.0 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.4 14.4 14.1 144.6 76.7 68.6 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.7 18.3 17.3 159.2 80.0 70.7 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 18.5 26.2 16.2 148.4 75.5 67.8 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 17.0 19.0 17.6 156.6 74.0 70.6 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 7.3 13.3 15.0 137.8 70.4 64.9 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 16.6 21.7 16.2 162.7 81.0 71.6 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 17.7 21.2 21.2 158.6 79.6 70.1 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 9.6 15.1 13.3 135.6 75.4 65.1 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------