***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 0.2 49.0 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.7 7.2 0.2 47.2 48.8 5.2 6.9 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.3 7.3 7.7 0.1 47.3 48.9 6.3 7.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -1.3 0.2 5.6 0.0 47.4 47.9 -0.6 0.7 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.5 7.5 6.4 0.1 46.8 49.6 6.3 7.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.6 5.0 0.2 47.3 51.7 5.5 6.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.4 6.5 7.1 0.2 49.9 50.0 5.1 6.5 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.3 -2.1 5.0 -0.3 41.6 46.2 -2.9 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.9 7.7 7.1 0.1 47.1 49.4 6.7 8.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 7.5 5.9 -0.2 43.4 47.5 6.5 7.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.8 7.8 6.3 0.1 47.9 50.5 7.0 7.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.8 7.0 5.9 -0.1 44.3 48.6 6.2 7.4 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.8 5.7 0.1 46.2 51.4 6.7 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.7 6.8 6.8 -0.4 38.8 45.2 6.4 8.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.4 6.1 0.1 48.6 48.3 4.7 6.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.3 7.9 6.0 0.2 47.2 51.7 7.0 8.2 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.3 6.8 0.0 46.2 47.5 4.8 6.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.3 5.2 -0.4 40.6 45.4 5.9 7.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.6 7.4 0.1 45.4 48.2 5.2 6.7 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.2 2.9 -0.7 39.2 41.5 2.0 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.5 7.9 7.5 0.1 47.9 49.3 6.4 8.0 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.3 7.0 -0.1 42.7 45.8 5.5 6.8 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.9 6.9 7.6 0.0 43.4 47.6 6.1 7.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.5 7.1 6.7 -0.2 40.4 46.6 6.5 7.8 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.9 6.6 6.1 0.1 48.5 49.4 5.4 6.7 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.4 5.2 0.0 46.2 49.9 6.3 7.6 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 7.1 6.8 0.2 50.0 50.7 6.1 7.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.2 6.1 0.2 47.8 49.2 5.2 7.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.0 4.3 -0.5 40.5 44.5 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.7 7.4 0.2 49.1 49.6 5.4 6.8 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------