***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.4 -0.1 41.0 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.2 8.6 9.1 -0.2 40.9 46.9 7.6 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.6 10.5 9.7 -0.1 42.3 47.8 8.5 12.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.2 8.0 0.2 45.1 50.2 0.4 3.5 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.1 8.4 0.1 43.0 49.1 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.3 6.9 0.5 45.9 52.3 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 7.4 8.0 8.9 -0.2 40.4 46.8 7.0 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.1 7.2 0.0 42.5 48.5 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.2 8.9 0.0 41.8 48.2 8.8 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.2 7.9 -0.1 42.2 48.1 8.8 12.1 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.1 8.2 0.1 42.9 49.2 8.4 12.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.7 8.0 0.1 42.2 49.4 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.4 7.5 0.3 43.4 50.5 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.0 10.4 8.9 -0.2 42.0 47.4 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.3 8.1 0.3 46.3 50.6 5.5 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.0 7.9 0.3 43.1 50.3 9.6 12.5 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 6.5 8.9 8.7 -0.3 42.0 46.1 6.6 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 9.8 7.3 -0.1 40.8 47.7 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.4 9.4 -0.2 41.0 47.2 7.7 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.7 5.0 -0.2 40.4 47.4 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.9 9.3 0.0 42.5 48.0 8.6 12.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.8 9.7 9.1 -0.2 42.1 46.5 7.1 11.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.7 10.1 9.6 -0.1 42.0 47.4 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.9 11.1 8.8 -0.1 42.5 47.7 8.6 12.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.3 8.0 0.0 43.0 48.6 7.3 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.3 7.3 0.4 48.3 51.7 10.2 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.1 10.1 8.6 -0.1 41.7 47.9 8.1 11.9 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.8 9.3 8.3 0.3 45.3 50.5 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.3 5.5 6.4 -0.1 40.6 48.1 4.5 6.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.4 8.7 9.3 -0.1 40.8 47.4 7.4 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------