***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.6 -0.8 38.0 45.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 5.1 5.6 7.2 -1.0 36.6 43.3 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.0 7.7 -0.9 38.2 44.7 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -0.2 2.6 6.2 -0.4 46.4 47.6 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.6 6.6 -0.5 41.4 47.3 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.7 5.2 -0.4 44.8 47.9 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.7 5.1 7.0 -1.0 35.8 43.2 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 5.3 -0.9 42.5 45.2 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.8 7.1 -0.7 39.4 46.6 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.7 8.1 6.1 -0.9 40.9 45.6 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.3 6.5 -0.5 42.5 47.6 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.4 6.1 -0.7 42.6 46.2 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 8.8 5.7 -0.6 42.5 46.8 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.5 6.7 -1.3 39.7 42.4 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.4 7.9 6.3 -0.3 46.9 48.3 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.0 9.2 6.2 -0.5 43.8 47.8 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.8 6.8 -1.0 34.5 42.5 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 7.5 5.3 -1.2 40.2 43.3 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.0 5.0 7.4 -1.0 37.8 43.4 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.0 3.0 -1.3 40.1 41.5 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.6 7.5 7.6 -0.7 39.1 46.3 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.8 5.0 7.1 -1.1 35.8 42.4 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.6 7.0 7.6 -1.1 39.1 43.4 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.0 6.7 -1.2 39.6 43.4 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.9 6.7 6.2 -0.6 41.7 45.9 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.5 5.5 -0.6 41.7 46.4 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 5.6 7.1 6.8 -0.8 39.4 45.0 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.0 8.7 6.5 -0.3 47.2 48.6 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.6 4.3 -1.3 39.6 42.4 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 5.4 5.8 7.4 -0.9 37.0 43.8 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------