***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 46.7 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.4 6.5 -0.1 42.4 47.8 3.2 5.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 5.5 7.0 -0.2 42.0 47.1 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -0.5 5.1 -0.3 42.9 46.1 -1.6 1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.4 5.7 -0.4 42.0 45.6 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.2 4.2 -0.6 38.5 43.7 3.7 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.4 6.5 0.0 42.6 48.7 2.7 4.8 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -3.7 4.3 -1.0 32.8 40.1 -3.7 -1.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.1 6.2 -0.5 42.2 45.4 5.4 6.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.7 5.1 -0.9 36.5 42.1 5.4 6.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.3 5.5 -0.5 41.1 44.8 5.6 7.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.9 5.1 -0.8 35.6 42.3 4.6 7.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.8 4.8 -0.6 36.8 43.3 5.1 7.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.1 4.6 5.8 -1.0 36.6 41.8 4.5 7.1 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.9 5.2 -0.2 41.7 46.4 4.2 5.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.5 5.2 -0.5 40.9 44.6 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.3 3.8 6.1 -0.2 40.5 47.1 2.7 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.4 4.4 -1.2 34.3 39.4 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.7 6.7 -0.2 41.0 46.8 3.0 5.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.2 2.1 -1.5 29.4 34.6 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.9 6.8 -0.3 44.7 47.0 5.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 3.5 6.2 -0.5 38.7 44.8 3.0 5.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.1 6.8 -0.5 39.6 45.3 3.3 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.2 5.0 5.8 -0.9 37.0 42.5 4.7 7.0 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.8 5.5 -0.2 45.4 47.5 4.0 5.2 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.0 4.6 -0.6 39.1 43.6 5.4 6.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.4 6.2 0.0 46.4 48.8 4.3 5.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.3 5.4 -0.3 41.8 46.2 4.8 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.1 3.4 -1.3 31.6 37.8 0.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.2 4.5 6.8 -0.1 44.2 48.2 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------