***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 9999.0 0.0 6.2 1.8 57.5 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 3.8 4.9 6.1 1.9 55.8 58.6 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 4.4 5.5 6.4 1.6 57.5 59.9 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 96 4 100 -0.6 -0.4 3.1 0.6 54.7 52.8 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 4.5 6.3 4.8 1.3 59.6 59.5 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 5.7 6.3 3.4 1.2 59.4 59.8 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 3.2 4.7 6.2 2.1 57.1 60.2 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -1.5 -1.0 3.4 0.7 58.1 56.7 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 4.9 7.8 6.0 1.6 62.0 61.8 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 5.5 7.7 4.5 1.1 61.4 59.5 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 5.8 8.3 5.1 1.6 65.8 62.1 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 5.4 6.7 4.3 1.1 61.1 59.1 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 6.0 7.7 4.7 1.5 62.8 61.8 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 5.0 6.0 5.7 1.1 58.2 57.5 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 4.7 5.0 4.7 0.7 54.7 53.6 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 6.0 8.3 4.9 1.7 64.6 62.4 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 3.4 3.8 5.7 1.5 56.2 57.2 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 5.1 6.3 3.9 0.9 60.4 58.2 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 3.9 5.3 6.2 1.7 56.4 58.4 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 1.9 2.3 1.6 0.2 53.1 52.2 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 4.6 5.8 6.1 1.5 58.5 60.1 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 4.1 4.6 5.7 1.2 55.4 55.2 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 4.4 5.5 6.4 1.6 57.2 58.9 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 5.1 6.9 5.6 1.2 60.9 59.6 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 98 2 100 3.9 4.7 4.7 1.3 56.5 57.9 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 6.6 6.9 3.5 0.8 55.3 56.6 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 4.1 5.4 5.7 1.8 58.7 60.4 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 4.7 5.3 4.2 0.9 56.2 54.8 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 2.3 2.4 3.1 0.7 58.0 57.1 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 3.3 5.2 6.3 2.0 56.4 59.5 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------