***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 65.6 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 1.2 64.0 62.6 -2.6 -1.2 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 2.1 1.6 0.1 1.2 63.8 64.8 -0.3 0.6 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -4.4 -4.6 -2.1 0.9 57.4 59.0 -6.8 -5.0 -3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -1.4 -1.5 1.2 63.2 64.4 -2.4 -1.9 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.3 -3.6 0.8 59.1 60.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -0.7 0.1 0.1 1.3 64.1 63.4 -2.2 -1.1 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -7.5 -7.0 -3.1 0.9 60.3 61.3 -9.4 -8.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 0.2 0.0 -0.9 1.3 66.4 65.3 -1.8 -0.9 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 0.0 -0.7 -2.4 1.1 61.0 62.6 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 -0.3 -0.6 -1.7 1.3 66.0 66.9 -1.8 -1.0 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -2.0 -2.2 1.2 62.9 64.3 -2.9 -2.2 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -1.1 -2.5 1.0 61.1 63.1 -2.1 -1.4 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 0.7 0.0 -1.2 1.0 59.3 61.7 -1.5 -0.4 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.5 0.9 58.8 58.7 -1.8 -0.9 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 0.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 63.6 65.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 61.4 59.7 -1.9 -1.0 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 0.8 57.0 59.6 -3.4 -3.1 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 1.2 64.3 63.3 -2.4 -1.2 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -5.5 -5.4 -5.0 0.5 54.1 56.4 -7.4 -6.0 -4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.3 65.5 65.0 -2.1 -1.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.9 61.4 59.8 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.2 64.4 64.4 -2.3 -1.3 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 1.0 59.8 62.4 -1.9 -1.4 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 1.1 66.3 63.3 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.2 -2.6 0.8 59.6 61.2 -2.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.3 66.3 65.1 -2.1 -0.6 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8 0.9 57.9 59.2 -3.6 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -3.9 -3.9 -4.0 0.7 57.2 58.3 -5.5 -4.4 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.3 64.1 64.0 -1.9 -0.8 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------