***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 42.8 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -3.7 -1.8 -0.8 -0.3 37.9 46.1 -2.2 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -1.0 0.9 -0.6 -0.2 42.6 48.6 0.3 1.1 3.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -7.6 -4.7 -2.4 0.1 42.4 50.8 -5.1 -4.3 -1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -3.8 -2.0 -2.0 0.2 43.3 52.8 -2.7 -1.5 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -2.3 -3.7 0.2 42.1 53.3 -4.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -3.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3 38.1 46.5 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -8.9 -7.3 -3.5 0.0 40.4 51.4 -8.3 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -1.0 -1.5 0.1 44.7 52.2 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -2.6 -1.4 -2.8 0.1 42.8 51.9 -1.9 -0.7 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -2.5 -1.2 -2.1 0.4 44.9 54.9 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -2.7 -2.5 0.2 41.6 53.7 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -2.7 -1.0 -2.8 0.4 45.1 54.7 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 -1.7 -0.6 -1.8 -0.1 41.2 49.9 -1.9 0.3 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 -3.2 -0.9 -2.1 0.0 41.6 48.7 -2.1 -0.2 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -0.5 -2.4 0.4 45.5 55.5 -1.5 0.0 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -3.9 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 37.3 45.1 -2.2 -0.4 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -4.3 -3.2 -3.6 -0.1 40.0 51.0 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -3.0 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 39.8 46.7 -2.1 -0.6 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -9.0 -7.6 -5.3 -0.3 39.0 47.8 -8.3 -5.3 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -2.7 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 44.9 50.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -3.3 -1.7 -0.8 -0.3 38.4 45.9 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -2.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.1 44.6 48.2 -2.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 -2.0 -0.1 41.6 50.7 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -3.0 -1.9 -1.8 -0.1 43.8 49.0 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.6 -2.8 0.1 40.7 52.4 -2.4 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 -2.7 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 43.6 48.8 -1.9 -0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 -4.7 -3.0 -2.1 0.2 43.7 51.6 -3.9 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -4.3 -4.4 -0.2 38.9 49.7 -4.6 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 -3.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 40.2 46.9 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------