***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 0.0 0.8 4.0 81.7 81.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 -0.6 0.3 0.6 3.8 78.1 77.1 -4.9 -2.9 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 1.4 2.9 0.5 3.8 79.8 78.2 -2.8 -1.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 -6.7 -5.1 -2.8 2.0 60.4 61.2 -9.8 -6.9 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3 3.2 71.4 72.1 -4.0 -2.7 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 -3.5 -3.1 -4.2 2.0 57.9 59.7 -4.8 -3.6 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 0.0 1.3 0.6 4.1 79.8 78.8 -4.2 -2.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -7.1 -7.0 -3.1 3.0 67.5 69.6 -11.1 -9.1 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 0.2 0.4 -0.4 3.8 77.1 78.4 -4.0 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 -0.7 0.1 -2.2 3.3 70.6 72.4 -3.9 -2.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 -0.3 -0.1 -1.5 3.4 73.2 73.7 -4.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 -2.0 -1.6 -2.2 3.2 70.6 72.5 -5.0 -3.6 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 -2.4 -1.3 -2.8 2.5 64.1 65.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 -0.3 0.5 -0.8 3.3 74.0 74.2 -3.8 -2.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 -1.8 -0.4 -1.3 2.3 64.9 64.1 -3.5 -2.0 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 -0.5 -0.1 -2.2 2.9 68.2 69.1 -3.3 -2.0 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 3.4 72.8 73.2 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 -3.0 -1.9 -3.2 2.9 70.2 70.1 -5.6 -4.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 -0.3 1.0 0.6 3.8 79.4 77.8 -4.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 -7.9 -5.4 -5.3 2.2 65.9 65.4 -8.9 -8.3 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 -0.4 0.2 0.3 3.7 77.3 77.1 -4.2 -3.1 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 -1.0 -0.9 0.2 3.3 71.7 73.5 -4.5 -2.9 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 -0.8 0.1 0.4 3.8 79.9 78.7 -4.4 -3.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 -1.3 -0.6 -1.1 3.3 73.2 73.9 -4.7 -2.9 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 3.2 71.9 73.4 -3.6 -3.1 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 -2.7 -1.3 -3.2 2.2 60.4 63.2 -3.7 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 0.4 1.5 0.3 3.9 79.3 79.6 -3.8 -3.1 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 -2.8 -1.9 -2.1 2.2 61.6 62.4 -5.4 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 -3.7 -2.8 -3.9 2.7 69.4 70.1 -7.9 -5.7 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 0.3 1.5 0.8 4.0 79.2 78.9 -4.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------